Analysis

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Price and energy
USDJPY from 154.109 to 153.4825, down 0.41%
Market Energy Bull Bias 29.2% to Bear Critical -68.8%, down 98.0 pts
Down candle #3 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.06%0.12%0.15%0.41%
Energy0.710.738.098.0
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.06% 0.12% 0.15% 0.41% 0.7 10.7 38.0 98.0
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.41% — higher than 93% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 98.0 pts — higher than 98% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,193 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-10
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 821 times

When USDJPY is in Bear Critical:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 587 times71.5%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 234 times28.5%

Current USDJPY market energy: -68.79%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 8.79%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 5.71%

"Let data guide you, but never trust it completely" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-09-11 09:00 UTC
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Market Energy
29.2%
Bull Bias
-68.8%
Bear Critical
Expected at
00:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

As the 4H candle closes, USDJPY within the Bear Critical reading.

The USDJPY market at session end, The energy level dropped -98%: from 29.2% now at -68.8%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -89.6 to +77.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 16:00 on 11-09-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 153.4825, down 0.41% from the previous candle (154.109). Market Energy was -68.8%, down 98.0 points from 29.2%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 153.4825, down 0.41% from the previous 4H candle (154.109). This drop is larger than 93% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 11,986 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 98 percentage points from the previous candle — from 29.2% to -68.8%. This drop is larger than 98% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at 29.2%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -68.8%, USDJPY is 8.79 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 5.71 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 91.1%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 95.1%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Critical, -68.8%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Critical with Market Energy 66.4%. USDJPY (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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