Analysis

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Price and energy
USDJPY from 156.4195 to 155.9775, down 0.28%
Market Energy Bear Bias -31.5% to Bear Bias -39.6%, down 8.1 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.02%0.36%0.06%0.28%
Energy6.720.738.18.1
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.02% 0.36% 0.06% 0.28% 6.7 20.7 38.1 8.1
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.28% — higher than 86% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 8.1 pts — higher than 42% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Bias USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,201 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-14
Number of Bear Bias occurrences: 1,409 times

When USDJPY is in Bear Bias:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 902 times64%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 507 times36%

Current USDJPY market energy: -39.64%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Bias (at -20.88%): 18.76%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Bias (at -60%): 20.36%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-09-04 09:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-31.5%
Bear Bias
-39.6%
Bear Bias
-33.4%
Bear Bias
Zone
-60 – -20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

The Bear trend energy zone is the result just recorded for USDJPY after the 4H candle closed.

On the 2AiTrading energy system, Market Energy reading dropped -8.1%, moving from -31.5% to -39.6% after the 4H candle.

Time in Bear Bias energy zone: 2 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -99.7 to +89.2.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 16:00 on 04-09-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 155.9775, down 0.28% from the previous candle (156.4195). Market Energy was -39.6%, down 8.1 points from -31.5%, in the Bear Bias state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Bias zone spans -60% to -20.88%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 155.9775, down 0.28% from the previous 4H candle (156.4195). This drop is larger than 86% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 11,956 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 8.1 percentage points from the previous candle — from -31.5% to -39.6%. This drop is larger than 42% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at -31.5%, Bear Bias — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Bias zone?

At -39.6%, USDJPY is 18.76 points from the upper boundary of Bear Bias (-20.88%) and 20.36 points from the lower boundary (-60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Bias mean?

Bear Bias is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Bias definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Neutral with energy 17.1%; GER40 (European equities) in Neutral with energy -17.9%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Bias, -39.6%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 40.1%. USDJPY (Bear Bias) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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