Analysis

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Price and energy
XAUUSD from 4,394.56 to 4,338.57, down 1.27%
Market Energy Bear Bias -22.4% to Bear Extreme -81.8%, down 59.3 pts
Down candle #2 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.20%0.16%0.32%1.27%
Energy3.70.320.359.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.20% 0.16% 0.32% 1.27% 3.7 0.3 20.3 59.3
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 1.27% — higher than 98% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 59.3 pts — higher than 94% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme XAUUSD 4H

Sample: 18,024 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-09
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 581 times

When XAUUSD is in Bear Extreme:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 581 times100%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 0 times0%

Current XAUUSD market energy: -81.78%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 7.28%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 18.22%

"Past — present — future. The past and present are known. The future is yours" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H4 · 2026-09-10 09:00 UTC
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Market Energy
-22.4%
Bear Bias
-81.8%
Bear Extreme
Expected at
00:10
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Observing the completed 4H candle, XAUUSD currently in the Bear Extreme state.

The market energy reading Market Energy dropped -59.3% from the previous session, from -22.4% to -81.8%.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -81.8 to +38.2.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XAUUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 16:00 on 10-09-2026 closed, XAUUSD was at 4,338.57, down 1.27% from the previous candle (4,394.56). Market Energy was -81.8%, down 59.3 points from -22.4%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did XAUUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

XAUUSD closed at 4,338.57, down 1.27% from the previous 4H candle (4,394.56). This drop is larger than 98% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD, across 11,858 candles since 2019.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 59.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from -22.4% to -81.8%. This drop is larger than 94% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD.

Do XAUUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had XAUUSD at -22.4%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, XAUUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Extreme.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -81.8%, XAUUSD is 7.28 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 18.22 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -53.8%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Critical with energy -73.9%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bear Extreme, -81.8%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 31%. XAUUSD (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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