XAUUSD 4H: Energy Zone Transition Trends
Candle close
- Study type
- Historical statistics
- Question answered
- Direction of market moves
- Principle
- Once a candle closes, its data is locked and never changes, so it can be observed over time
- Candles studied
- 18,178 XAUUSD 4H candles
- Period
- 2014-12-31 – 2026-10-22 (11.8 years)
- Result
- 7-zone table below ↓
Concepts referenced in this study. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.
XAUUSD — Bear Extreme — 4H
◉ CURRENT CANDLEOccurrences: 590 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 590 times — 100%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 0 times — 0%
Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 21.42 points
Distance to bottom -100%: 4.08 points
XAUUSD — Bear Critical — 4H
Occurrences: 875 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 623 times — 71.2%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 252 times — 28.8%
XAUUSD — Bear Bias — 4H
Occurrences: 1,377 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 839 times — 60.9%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 538 times — 39.1%
XAUUSD — Neutral — 4H
Occurrences: 1,451 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 759 times — 52.3%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 692 times — 47.7%
XAUUSD — Bull Bias — 4H
Occurrences: 1,506 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 648 times — 43%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 858 times — 57%
XAUUSD — Bull Critical — 4H
Occurrences: 959 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 318 times — 33.2%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 641 times — 66.8%
XAUUSD — Bull Extreme — 4H
Occurrences: 763 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 0 times — 0%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 763 times — 100%
What is the trend of XAUUSD?
Historically, when XAUUSD was in the Bear Extreme zone, the market moved up to a higher zone 100% of the time and down to a lower zone 0% of the time (across 590 observations).
Where is the market within its current zone?
The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%. The market is at -95.92%, 21.42 points from the upper bound and 4.08 points from the lower bound — closer to the lower bound of the zone.
How are these statistics calculated?
Each closed candle carries an energy state. A transition is counted when the next candle carries a DIFFERENT state; moving up means a higher-energy zone, moving down a lower one. Percentages are frequencies observed across the full sample.
Where does the data come from and how many candles?
The sample contains 18,178 candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-22, computed with 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Data is captured at candle close and locked immutable over time to keep the statistics stable.
Are these numbers a prediction?
No. These are historical frequencies describing XAUUSD's past behavior — not future probabilities and not buy/sell advice. Investors should combine them with their own trading method and do full research before applying.
What are the 7 market energy states?
Market Energy measures the market on a -100% to +100% scale, split into 7 zones from Bear Extreme to Bull Extreme; every closed candle belongs to exactly one zone.
See all 7 Market States →To jump to a symbol you're interested in, click .