Analysis

·

Candle close
Price and energy
USDJPY from 158.861 to 158.657, down 0.13%
Market Energy Bull Extreme 78.6% to Bull Critical 67.3%, down 11.4 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.11%▲ 0.09%▲ 0.03%▼ 0.13%
Energy▲ 16.7▼ 11.4▼ 7.4▼ 11.4
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.11%▲ 0.09%▲ 0.03%▼ 0.13%▲ 16.7▼ 11.4▼ 7.4▼ 11.4
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.13% — higher than 60% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 11.4 pts — higher than 54% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bull Critical USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,252 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-24
Number of Bull Critical occurrences: 1,069 times

▸When USDJPY is in Bull Critical:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 392 times — 36.7%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 677 times — 63.3%

▸Current USDJPY market energy: 67.26%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bull Critical (at 74.5%): 7.24%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bull Critical (at 60%): 7.26%

"Past — present — future. The past and present are known. The future is yours" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-09-24 21:00 UTC
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Market Energy
78.6%
Bull Extreme
67.3%
Bull Critical
Expected at
12:10
Zone
60 – 74.5
Bias
Buyers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, USDJPY currently in the Bull Critical state.

Market energy measurement Market Energy reading dropped -11.4%, moving from 78.6% to 67.3% after the 4H candle.

Time in Bull Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -5.1 to +97.4.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 04:00 on 25-09-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 158.657, down 0.13% from the previous candle (158.861). Market Energy was 67.3%, down 11.4 points from 78.6%, in the Bull Critical state — controlled by buyers. The Bull Critical zone spans 60% to 74.5%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 158.657, down 0.13% from the previous 4H candle (158.861). This drop is larger than 60% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 12,043 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 11.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from 78.6% to 67.3%. This drop is larger than 54% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at 78.6%, Bull Extreme — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved down to a lower zone: Bull Extreme → Bull Critical.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bull Critical zone?

At 67.3%, USDJPY is 7.24 points from the upper boundary of Bull Critical (74.5%) and 7.26 points from the lower boundary (60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bull Critical mean?

Bull Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bull Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 54.3%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 26.3%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bull Critical, 67.3%) has higher energy than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy -1.6%. USDJPY energy is currently above DXY by 68.9 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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