Analysis

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Price and energy
XAUUSD from 4,601.77 to 4,584.47, down 0.38%
Market Energy Neutral -4.9% to Bear Bias -33.2%, down 28.3 pts
Down candle #2 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.28%0.63%0.29%0.38%
Energy7.554.05.528.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.28% 0.63% 0.29% 0.38% 7.5 54.0 5.5 28.3
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.38% — higher than 76% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 28.3 pts — higher than 81% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Bias XAUUSD 4H

Sample: 18,029 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-10
Number of Bear Bias occurrences: 1,354 times

When XAUUSD is in Bear Bias:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 827 times61.1%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 527 times38.9%

Current XAUUSD market energy: -33.16%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Bias (at -20.88%): 12.28%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Bias (at -60%): 26.84%

"If history reveals a pattern, remember — nothing is ever absolutely 100%" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H4 · 2026-08-28 01:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-4.9%
Neutral
-33.2%
Bear Bias
-11.8%
Neutral
Zone
-60 – -20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

As the 4H candle closes, XAUUSD in the Bear Bias state.

Looking at the energy level, A -28.3% change from the previous candle, Market Energy is now -33.2% (previous: -4.9%).

Time in Bear Bias energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -69.8 to +79.6.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XAUUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 08:00 on 28-08-2026 closed, XAUUSD was at 4,584.47, down 0.38% from the previous candle (4,601.77). Market Energy was -33.2%, down 28.3 points from -4.9%, in the Bear Bias state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Bias zone spans -60% to -20.88%.

How much did XAUUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

XAUUSD closed at 4,584.47, down 0.38% from the previous 4H candle (4,601.77). This drop is larger than 76% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD, across 11,812 candles since 2019.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 28.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from -4.9% to -33.2%. This drop is larger than 81% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD.

Do XAUUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had XAUUSD at -4.9%, Neutral — when this candle closed, XAUUSD moved down to a lower zone: Neutral → Bear Bias.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bear Bias zone?

At -33.2%, XAUUSD is 12.28 points from the upper boundary of Bear Bias (-20.88%) and 26.84 points from the lower boundary (-60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Bias mean?

Bear Bias is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Bias definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 79%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 99.9%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bear Bias, -33.2%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy -19.7%. XAUUSD energy is currently below DXY by 13.4 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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