Analysis

USDJPY 156.81 ↓0.11%: Bears have the edge · 4H 16:00 Oct 23, 2026

·
Candle close
Price and energy
Open 156.979 · High 157.14 · Low 156.7645 · Close 156.81 · Range (high − low) 0.3755
USDJPY closed at 156.81, down 0.167 (-0.11%) from 156.977.
Bull–Bear energy behind the price: the market moved from the Bear Bias zone at -51.6% to Bear Bias at -43.5%, up 8.0 points.
Energy diverges from price.
Price and energy · last 4 candles
Price156.776156.497156.977156.81
Energy-83.2%-82.8%-51.6%-43.5%
Price change↓ 0.09%↓ 0.18%↑ 0.31%↓ 0.11%
Energy change↓ 6.7↑ 0.4↑ 31.3↑ 8.0
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
↓ 0.09%↓ 0.18%↑ 0.31%↓ 0.11%↓ 6.7↑ 0.4↑ 31.3↑ 8.0
Δ priceΔ energy↑ up · ↓ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.11% — higher than 54% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy up 8.0 pts — higher than 40% of past rises
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Bias USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,370 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-22
Number of Bear Bias occurrences: 1,419 times

▸When USDJPY is in Bear Bias:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 909 times — 64.1%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 510 times — 35.9%

▸Current USDJPY market energy: -43.54%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Bias (at -20.88%): 22.66%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Bias (at -60%): 16.46%

"If history reveals a pattern, remember — nothing is ever absolutely 100%" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-10-23 05:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live USDJPY chart →
Market Energy
-51.6%
Bear Bias
-43.5%
Bear Bias
Expected at
20:10
Zone
-60 – -20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Observing the completed 4H candle, USDJPY recorded in the Market Energy state leaning Bear.

Per the 2AI model, Market Energy at -43.5%, up +8% from -51.6% in the previous candle.

Time in Bear Bias energy zone: 2 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -94.7 to 94.3.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle closed at 16:00 on 23-10-2026, USDJPY was at 156.81, down 0.11% from the previous candle (156.977). Market Energy was -43.5%, up 8.0 points from -51.6%, in the Bear Bias state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Bias zone spans -60% to -20.88%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 156.81, down 0.11% from the previous 4H candle (156.977). This drop is larger than 54% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 12,165 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 8 percentage points from the previous candle — from -51.6% to -43.5%. This rise is larger than 40% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

No. On this candle price fell but energy rose — the two moved in opposite directions. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at -51.6%, Bear Bias — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Bias zone?

At -43.5%, USDJPY is 22.66 points from the upper boundary of Bear Bias (-20.88%) and 16.46 points from the lower boundary (-60%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Bias mean?

Bear Bias is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Bias definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -28.7%; GER40 (European equities) in Neutral with energy -13%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Bias, -43.5%) lower than GER40; sits in the same state zone as SPX500.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 56.5%. USDJPY (Bear Bias) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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