Analysis

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Price and energy
USDJPY from 153.714 to 153.561, down 0.10%
Market Energy Bear Critical -60.2% to Bear Bias -54.3%, up 5.9 pts
Energy diverges from price
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.15%0.41%0.15%0.10%
Energy38.098.08.65.9
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.15% 0.41% 0.15% 0.10% 38.0 98.0 8.6 5.9
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.10% — higher than 51% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy up 5.9 pts — higher than 31% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Bias USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,195 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-11
Number of Bear Bias occurrences: 1,408 times

When USDJPY is in Bear Bias:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 901 times64%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 507 times36%

Current USDJPY market energy: -54.33%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Bias (at -20.88%): 33.45%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Bias (at -60%): 5.67%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-09-11 17:00 UTC
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Market Energy
-60.2%
Bear Critical
-54.3%
Bear Bias
Expected at
08:10
Zone
-60 – -20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

As the 4H candle closes, USDJPY recorded in the Bear Bias state.

On trend energy, Market Energy reading rose +5.9%, moving from -60.2% to -54.3% after the 4H candle.

Time in Bear Bias energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -89.6 to +77.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 00:00 on 12-09-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 153.561, down 0.1% from the previous candle (153.714). Market Energy was -54.3%, up 5.9 points from -60.2%, in the Bear Bias state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Bias zone spans -60% to -20.88%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 153.561, down 0.1% from the previous 4H candle (153.714). This drop is larger than 51% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 11,988 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 5.9 percentage points from the previous candle — from -60.2% to -54.3%. This rise is larger than 31% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

No. Price moved down while energy moved up on this candle. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at -60.2%, Bear Critical — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved up to a higher zone: Bear Critical → Bear Bias.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Bias zone?

At -54.3%, USDJPY is 33.45 points from the upper boundary of Bear Bias (-20.88%) and 5.67 points from the lower boundary (-60%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Bias mean?

Bear Bias is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Bias definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 80.4%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Critical with energy 61%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Bias, -54.3%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Critical with Market Energy -62.2%. USDJPY (Bear Bias) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

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Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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