Analysis

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Price and energy
USDJPY from 155.769 to 156.325, up 0.36%
Market Energy Bear Extreme -90.2% to Bear Critical -69.6%, up 20.7 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.13%0.29%0.02%0.36%
Energy0.32.76.720.7
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.13% 0.29% 0.02% 0.36% 0.3 2.7 6.7 20.7
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 0.36% — higher than 92% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy up 20.7 pts — higher than 73% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,193 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-10
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 821 times

When USDJPY is in Bear Critical:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 587 times71.5%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 234 times28.5%

Current USDJPY market energy: -69.57%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 9.57%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 4.93%

"If history reveals a pattern, remember — nothing is ever absolutely 100%" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-09-04 01:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-90.2%
Bear Extreme
-69.6%
Bear Critical
-31.5%
Bear Bias
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Reading from the 4H candle, Market USDJPY in the Bear Critical zone.

Looking at the Market Energy reading, The energy level rose +20.7%: from -90.2% now at -69.6%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -99.7 to +89.2.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 08:00 on 04-09-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 156.325, up 0.36% from the previous candle (155.769). Market Energy was -69.6%, up 20.7 points from -90.2%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 156.325, up 0.36% from the previous 4H candle (155.769). This rise is larger than 92% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 11,954 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 20.7 percentage points from the previous candle — from -90.2% to -69.6%. This rise is larger than 73% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved up on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at -90.2%, Bear Extreme — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved up to a higher zone: Bear Extreme → Bear Critical.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -69.6%, USDJPY is 9.57 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 4.93 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Critical with energy 72.4%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 58.5%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Critical, -69.6%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -54.2%. USDJPY (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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