Analysis

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Price and energy
XAUUSD from 4,316.61 to 4,331.7, up 0.35%
Market Energy Bear Extreme -80.1% to Bear Critical -70.7%, up 9.4 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price1.27%0.58%1.08%0.35%
Energy59.312.210.59.4
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
1.27% 0.58% 1.08% 0.35% 59.3 12.2 10.5 9.4
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 0.35% — higher than 72% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy up 9.4 pts — higher than 49% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical XAUUSD 4H

Sample: 18,029 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-10
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 863 times

When XAUUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 613 times71%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 250 times29%

Current XAUUSD market energy: -70.7%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 10.7%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 3.8%

"A person's history reveals more than you might think" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H4 · 2026-09-11 01:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-80.1%
Bear Extreme
-70.7%
Bear Critical
Expected at
16:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Following the completion of the 4H candle, XAUUSD recorded in the near-extreme Bear energy zone.

Market movement after the 4H candle closes, The energy level rose +9.4%: from -80.1% now at -70.7%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -81.8 to +38.2.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XAUUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 08:00 on 11-09-2026 closed, XAUUSD was at 4,331.7, up 0.35% from the previous candle (4,316.61). Market Energy was -70.7%, up 9.4 points from -80.1%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did XAUUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

XAUUSD closed at 4,331.7, up 0.35% from the previous 4H candle (4,316.61). This rise is larger than 72% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD, across 11,861 candles since 2019.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 9.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from -80.1% to -70.7%. This rise is larger than 49% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD.

Do XAUUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price rose and energy rose — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had XAUUSD at -80.1%, Bear Extreme — when this candle closed, XAUUSD moved up to a higher zone: Bear Extreme → Bear Critical.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -70.7%, XAUUSD is 10.7 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 3.8 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 27.2%; GER40 (European equities) in Neutral with energy 4.9%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bear Critical, -70.7%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 24.8%. XAUUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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