Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
BTCUSD from 86,413.12 to 86,192.44, down 0.26%
Market Energy Bull Extreme 78.9% to Bull Critical 73.6%, down 5.3 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.41%0.75%0.50%0.26%
Energy9.31.20.65.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.41% 0.75% 0.50% 0.26% 9.3 1.2 0.6 5.3
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.26% — higher than 32% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 5.3 pts — higher than 35% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bull Critical BTCUSD 4H

Sample: 21,416 4H candles from 2017-01-01 to 2026-09-21
Number of Bull Critical occurrences: 1,063 times

When BTCUSD is in Bull Critical:

  • then BTCUSD moved to higher Market State: 301 times28.3%
  • then BTCUSD moved to lower Market State: 762 times71.7%

Current BTCUSD market energy: 73.56%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bull Critical (at 74.5%): 0.94%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bull Critical (at 60%): 13.56%

"A person's history reveals more than you might think" — 2AITRADING

BTCUSD · H4 · 2026-09-22 16:00 UTC
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Market Energy
78.9%
Bull Extreme
73.6%
Bull Critical
Expected at
07:10
Zone
60 – 74.5
Bias
Buyers in control
Explanation

Following the completion of the 4H candle, Result for BTCUSD: the Bull Critical zone.

On the measurement side, Energy delta -5.3%: Market Energy at 73.6%, previously 78.9%.

Time in Bull Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, BTCUSD Market Energy ranged from -47.4 to +99.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did BTCUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 23:00 on 22-09-2026 closed, BTCUSD was at 86,192.44, down 0.26% from the previous candle (86,413.12). Market Energy was 73.6%, down 5.3 points from 78.9%, in the Bull Critical state — controlled by buyers. The Bull Critical zone spans 60% to 74.5%.

How much did BTCUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

BTCUSD closed at 86,192.44, down 0.26% from the previous 4H candle (86,413.12). This drop is larger than 32% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for BTCUSD, across 17,043 candles since 2019.

How did BTCUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 5.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from 78.9% to 73.6%. This drop is larger than 35% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for BTCUSD.

Do BTCUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. This candle recorded price moving down in the same direction as energy. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was BTCUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had BTCUSD at 78.9%, Bull Extreme — when this candle closed, BTCUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bull Extreme → Bull Critical.

Where does BTCUSD energy sit within the Bull Critical zone?

At 73.6%, BTCUSD is 0.94 points from the upper boundary of Bull Critical (74.5%) and 13.56 points from the lower boundary (60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bull Critical mean?

Bull Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bull Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -27.6%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Bias with energy -39.4%. Against this backdrop, BTCUSD (Bull Critical, 73.6%) has higher energy than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Extreme with Market Energy 78.3%. BTCUSD (Bull Critical) and DXY currently sit on the same Bull side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for BTCUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for BTCUSD on the BTCUSD overview →

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