Analysis

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Price and energy
XAUUSD from 4,393.93 to 4,415.36, up 0.49%
Market Energy Bear Extreme -89.6% to Bear Critical -72.3%, up 17.3 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.15%0.15%1.63%0.49%
Energy5.27.764.617.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.15% 0.15% 1.63% 0.49% 5.2 7.7 64.6 17.3
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 0.49% — higher than 96% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy up 17.3 pts — higher than 68% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical XAUUSD 1H

Sample: 69,356 1H candles from 2015-01-02 to 2026-09-10
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 3,294 times

When XAUUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 2,416 times73.3%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 878 times26.7%

Current XAUUSD market energy: -72.28%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 12.28%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 2.22%

"If history reveals a pattern, remember — nothing is ever absolutely 100%" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H1 · 2026-09-04 13:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-89.6%
Bear Extreme
-72.3%
Bear Critical
-57.0%
Bear Bias
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

The near-peak Bear energy level recorded from just-completed 1H candle data for XAUUSD.

Market energy measurement Market Energy rose +17.3% from the previous session, from -89.6% to -72.3%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 1H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -98 to +100.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XAUUSD price and energy show when this 1H candle closed?

When the 1H candle at 20:00 on 04-09-2026 closed, XAUUSD was at 4,415.36, up 0.49% from the previous candle (4,393.93). Market Energy was -72.3%, up 17.3 points from -89.6%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did XAUUSD price move on this 1H candle, and how large is that historically?

XAUUSD closed at 4,415.36, up 0.49% from the previous 1H candle (4,393.93). This rise is larger than 96% of past rises on the 1H timeframe for XAUUSD, across 45,485 candles since 2019.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 17.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from -89.6% to -72.3%. This rise is larger than 68% of past rises on the 1H timeframe for XAUUSD.

Do XAUUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved up on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 1H candle?

The previous 1H candle had XAUUSD at -89.6%, Bear Extreme — when this candle closed, XAUUSD moved up to a higher zone: Bear Extreme → Bear Critical.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -72.3%, XAUUSD is 12.28 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 2.22 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Critical with energy -72.8%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 56.6%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bear Critical, -72.3%) lower than GER40; sits in the same state zone as SPX500.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 23.5%. XAUUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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