Analysis

USDJPY 156.497 ↓0.18%: Bears in the peak-force zone · 4H 08:00 Oct 23, 2026

·
Candle close
Price and energy
Open 156.817 · High 156.8595 · Low 156.2845 · Close 156.497 · Range (high − low) 0.575
USDJPY closed at 156.497, down 0.279 (-0.18%) from 156.776.
Bull–Bear energy behind the price: the market moved from the Bear Extreme zone at -83.2% to Bear Extreme at -82.8%, up 0.4 points.
Third straight down candle, energy diverges from price.
Price and energy · last 4 candles
Price157.073156.919156.776156.497
Energy-86.8%-76.5%-83.2%-82.8%
Price change↑ 0.03%↓ 0.10%↓ 0.09%↓ 0.18%
Energy change↑ 7.9↑ 10.3↓ 6.7↑ 0.4
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
↑ 0.03%↓ 0.10%↓ 0.09%↓ 0.18%↑ 7.9↑ 10.3↓ 6.7↑ 0.4
Δ priceΔ energy↑ up · ↓ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.18% — higher than 72% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy up 0.4 pts — higher than 2% of past rises
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,370 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-22
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 581 times

▸When USDJPY is in Bear Extreme:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 581 times — 100%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 0 times — 0%

▸Current USDJPY market energy: -82.83%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 8.33%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 17.17%

"Let data guide you, but never trust it completely" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-10-22 21:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live USDJPY chart →
Market Energy
-83.2%
Bear Extreme
-82.8%
Bear Extreme
Expected at
12:10
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, USDJPY classified as the Bear Extreme zone.

Market trend energy The energy level rose +0.4%: from -83.2% now at -82.8%.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 5 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -94.7 to 94.3.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle closed at 08:00 on 23-10-2026, USDJPY was at 156.497, down 0.18% from the previous candle (156.776). Market Energy was -82.8%, up 0.4 points from -83.2%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 156.497, down 0.18% from the previous 4H candle (156.776). This drop is larger than 72% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 12,163 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 0.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from -83.2% to -82.8%. This rise is larger than 2% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

No. Price moved down while energy moved up on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at -83.2%, Bear Extreme — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -82.8%, USDJPY is 8.33 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 17.17 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -30.8%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Bias with energy -30.8%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Extreme, -82.8%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -52.6%. USDJPY (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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