Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
USDJPY from 157.863 to 157.555, down 0.20%
Market Energy Bull Bias 45.8% to Neutral -20.5%, down 66.3 pts
Down candle #2 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.16%▲ 0.04%▼ 0.18%▼ 0.20%
Energy▲ 5.7▲ 8.4▼ 15.1▼ 66.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.16%▲ 0.04%▼ 0.18%▼ 0.20%▲ 5.7▲ 8.4▼ 15.1▼ 66.3
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.20% — higher than 75% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 66.3 pts — higher than 94% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Neutral USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,281 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-01
Number of Neutral occurrences: 1,524 times

▸When USDJPY is in Neutral:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 841 times — 55.2%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 683 times — 44.8%

▸Current USDJPY market energy: -20.5%

  • Distance to upper bound of Neutral (at 20.88%): 41.38%
  • Distance to lower bound of Neutral (at -20.88%): 0.38%

"Let data guide you, but never trust it completely" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-10-02 05:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
45.8%
Bull Bias
-20.5%
Neutral
Expected at
20:10
Zone
-20.88 – 20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

The Neutral state is the result just recorded for USDJPY after the 4H candle closed.

The market energy reading Market Energy moved from 45.8% to -20.5%, down -66.3% from the previous candle.

Time in Neutral energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -76.3 to +98.5.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 12:00 on 02-10-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 157.555, down 0.2% from the previous candle (157.863). Market Energy was -20.5%, down 66.3 points from 45.8%, in the Neutral state — the market is neutral. The Neutral zone spans -20.88% to 20.88%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 157.555, down 0.2% from the previous 4H candle (157.863). This drop is larger than 75% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 12,075 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 66.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from 45.8% to -20.5%. This drop is larger than 94% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at 45.8%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Neutral.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Neutral zone?

At -20.5%, USDJPY is 41.38 points from the upper boundary of Neutral (20.88%) and 0.38 points from the lower boundary (-20.88%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Neutral mean?

Neutral is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Neutral definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 76.3%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 78.3%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Neutral, -20.5%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy -2.8%. USDJPY energy is currently below DXY by 17.7 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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