Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
USDJPY from 163.7885 to 163.436, down 0.22%
Market Energy Bull Bias 32.6% to Bear Critical -63.7%, down 96.3 pts
Down candle #2 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▼ 0.09%▲ 0.08%▼ 0.05%▼ 0.22%
Energy▼ 35.0▲ 9.1▼ 7.8▼ 96.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▼ 0.09%▲ 0.08%▼ 0.05%▼ 0.22%▼ 35.0▲ 9.1▼ 7.8▼ 96.3
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.22% — higher than 78% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 96.3 pts — higher than 98% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,289 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-02
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 825 times

▸When USDJPY is in Bear Critical:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 591 times — 71.6%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 234 times — 28.4%

▸Current USDJPY market energy: -63.67%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 3.67%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 10.83%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-07-29 01:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
32.6%
Bull Bias
-63.7%
Bear Critical
-44.9%
Bear Bias
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Reading from the 4H candle, USDJPY within Bear in Critical state.

On the measurement side, Market Energy dropped -96.3% from the previous candle, from 32.6% to -63.7%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -63.7 to +77.1.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 08:00 on 29-07-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 163.436, down 0.22% from the previous candle (163.7885). Market Energy was -63.7%, down 96.3 points from 32.6%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 163.436, down 0.22% from the previous 4H candle (163.7885). This drop is larger than 78% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 11,792 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 96.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from 32.6% to -63.7%. This drop is larger than 98% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at 32.6%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -63.7%, USDJPY is 3.67 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 10.83 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -40.8%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Extreme with energy -85.3%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Critical, -63.7%) has higher energy than GER40; lower than SPX500.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Critical with Market Energy -70.2%. USDJPY (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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