Analysis

USDCAD 1.4018 ↓0.12%: Bears in the peak-force zone · 4H 16:00 Oct 22, 2026

·
Candle close
Price and energy
Open 1.4031 · High 1.4031 · Low 1.4014 · Close 1.4018 · Range (high − low) 0.001735
USDCAD closed at 1.4018, down 0.00164 (-0.12%) from 1.4034.
Bull–Bear energy behind the price: the market moved from the Bear Extreme zone at -82.0% to Bear Extreme at -97.6%, down 15.6 points.
Fourth straight down candle, price and energy are moving down together.
Price and energy · last 4 candles
Price1.40471.40421.40341.4018
Energy-52.7%-67.5%-82.0%-97.6%
Price change↓ 0.07%↓ 0.03%↓ 0.06%↓ 0.12%
Energy change↓ 18.1↓ 14.7↓ 14.5↓ 15.6
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
↓ 0.07%↓ 0.03%↓ 0.06%↓ 0.12%↓ 18.1↓ 14.7↓ 14.5↓ 15.6
Δ priceΔ energy↑ up · ↓ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.12% — higher than 65% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 15.6 pts — higher than 70% of past drops
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme USDCAD 4H

Sample: 18,367 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-22
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 264 times

▸When USDCAD is in Bear Extreme:

  • then USDCAD moved to higher Market State: 264 times — 100%
  • then USDCAD moved to lower Market State: 0 times — 0%

▸Current USDCAD market energy: -97.56%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 23.06%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 2.44%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

USDCAD · H4 · 2026-10-22 05:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live USDCAD chart →
Market Energy
-82.0%
Bear Extreme
-97.6%
Bear Extreme
-77.1%
Bear Extreme
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Once measurement on the 4H timeframe completes, Market USDCAD in Bear energy in an extreme reading.

On trend energy, Energy delta -15.6%: Market Energy at -97.6%, previously -82%.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 2 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDCAD Market Energy ranged from -97.6 to -34.7.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDCAD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle closed at 16:00 on 22-10-2026, USDCAD was at 1.4018, down 0.12% from the previous candle (1.4034). Market Energy was -97.6%, down 15.6 points from -82%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did USDCAD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDCAD closed at 1.4018, down 0.12% from the previous 4H candle (1.4034). This drop is larger than 65% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCAD, across 12,159 candles since 2019.

How did USDCAD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 15.6 percentage points from the previous candle — from -82% to -97.6%. This drop is larger than 70% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCAD.

Do USDCAD price and energy agree?

Yes. This candle recorded price moving down in the same direction as energy. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDCAD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDCAD at -82%, Bear Extreme — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does USDCAD energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -97.6%, USDCAD is 23.06 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 2.44 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Extreme with energy -83.7%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Bias with energy -58.9%. Against this backdrop, USDCAD (Bear Extreme, -97.6%) lower than GER40; sits in the same state zone as SPX500.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Extreme with Market Energy -82.2%. USDCAD (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDCAD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDCAD on the USDCAD overview →

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