Analysis

USDCAD 1.4139 ↓0.13%: Bears very strong · 4H 04:00 Oct 17, 2026

·
Candle close
Price and energy
Open 1.4157 · High 1.4165 · Low 1.4136 · Close 1.4139 · Range (high − low) 0.002895
USDCAD closed at 1.4139, down 0.0018 (-0.13%) from 1.4157.
Bull–Bear energy behind the price: the market moved from the Bear Bias zone at -52.0% to Bear Critical at -67.3%, down 15.3 points.
Second straight down candle, price and energy are moving down together.
Price and energy · last 4 candles
Price1.41621.41711.41571.4139
Energy-78.3%-64.9%-52.0%-67.3%
Price change↓ 0.10%↑ 0.06%↓ 0.10%↓ 0.13%
Energy change↓ 29.8↑ 13.4↑ 12.9↓ 15.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
↓ 0.10%↑ 0.06%↓ 0.10%↓ 0.13%↓ 29.8↑ 13.4↑ 12.9↓ 15.3
Δ priceΔ energy↑ up · ↓ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.13% — higher than 68% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 15.3 pts — higher than 69% of past drops
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical USDCAD 4H

Sample: 18,351 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-19
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 612 times

▸When USDCAD is in Bear Critical:

  • then USDCAD moved to higher Market State: 420 times — 68.6%
  • then USDCAD moved to lower Market State: 192 times — 31.4%

▸Current USDCAD market energy: -67.27%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 7.27%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 7.23%

"Why does archaeology matter?" — 2AITRADING

USDCAD · H4 · 2026-10-16 17:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live USDCAD chart →
Market Energy
-52.0%
Bear Bias
-67.3%
Bear Critical
-82.4%
Bear Extreme
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Following the completion of the 4H candle, USDCAD noted at the Bear Critical zone.

Looking at the energy level, A -15.3% change from the previous candle, Market Energy is now -67.3% (previous: -52%).

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDCAD Market Energy ranged from -96.8 to 86.8.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDCAD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle closed at 04:00 on 17-10-2026, USDCAD was at 1.4139, down 0.13% from the previous candle (1.4157). Market Energy was -67.3%, down 15.3 points from -52%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did USDCAD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDCAD closed at 1.4139, down 0.13% from the previous 4H candle (1.4157). This drop is larger than 68% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCAD, across 12,138 candles since 2019.

How did USDCAD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 15.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from -52% to -67.3%. This drop is larger than 69% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCAD.

Do USDCAD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDCAD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDCAD at -52%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, USDCAD moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does USDCAD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -67.3%, USDCAD is 7.27 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 7.23 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Extreme with energy -99%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Extreme with energy -92.6%. Against this backdrop, USDCAD (Bear Critical, -67.3%) has higher energy than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Extreme with Market Energy 77.6%. USDCAD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDCAD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDCAD on the USDCAD overview →

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