Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
ADAUSD from 0.2509 to 0.2374, down 5.38%
Market Energy Bull Bias 21.4% to Bear Extreme -83.5%, down 104.9 pts
Down candle #3 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price2.16%1.42%2.03%5.38%
Energy13.011.545.5104.9
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
2.16% 1.42% 2.03% 5.38% 13.0 11.5 45.5 104.9
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 5.38% — higher than 98% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 104.9 pts — largest on record (since 2019)
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme ADAUSD 4H

Sample: 18,474 4H candles from 2018-04-17 to 2026-09-22
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 185 times

When ADAUSD is in Bear Extreme:

  • then ADAUSD moved to higher Market State: 185 times100%
  • then ADAUSD moved to lower Market State: 0 times0%

Current ADAUSD market energy: -83.52%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 9.02%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 16.48%

"Past — present — future. The past and present are known. The future is yours" — 2AITRADING

ADAUSD · H4 · 2026-09-23 12:00 UTC
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Market Energy
21.4%
Bull Bias
-83.5%
Bear Extreme
Expected at
03:10
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

After the 4H candle closes, ADAUSD within the Bear Extreme measurement.

Market movement after the 4H candle closes, A -104.9% change from the previous candle, Market Energy is now -83.5% (previous: 21.4%).

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, ADAUSD Market Energy ranged from -83.5 to +92.5.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did ADAUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 19:00 on 23-09-2026 closed, ADAUSD was at 0.2374, down 5.38% from the previous candle (0.2509). Market Energy was -83.5%, down 104.9 points from 21.4%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did ADAUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

ADAUSD closed at 0.2374, down 5.38% from the previous 4H candle (0.2509). This drop is larger than 98% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for ADAUSD, across 16,931 candles since 2019.

How did ADAUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 104.9 percentage points from the previous candle — from 21.4% to -83.5%. This is the largest of all drops on the 4H timeframe for ADAUSD on record since 2019.

Do ADAUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was ADAUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had ADAUSD at 21.4%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, ADAUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Bear Extreme.

Where does ADAUSD energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -83.5%, ADAUSD is 9.02 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 16.48 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Critical with energy -63.9%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Extreme with energy -84.2%. Against this backdrop, ADAUSD (Bear Extreme, -83.5%) lower than SPX500; sits in the same state zone as GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Critical with Market Energy 60.7%. ADAUSD (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for ADAUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for ADAUSD on the ADAUSD overview →

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