Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
XAUUSD from 4,023.98 to 4,016.96, down 0.17%
Market Energy Neutral -9.3% to Neutral -20.5%, down 11.2 pts
Down candle #4 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▼ 0.12%▼ 0.09%▼ 0.49%▼ 0.17%
Energy▼ 31.1▼ 9.6▼ 23.3▼ 11.2
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▼ 0.12%▼ 0.09%▼ 0.49%▼ 0.17%▼ 31.1▼ 9.6▼ 23.3▼ 11.2
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.17% — higher than 51% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 11.2 pts — higher than 56% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Neutral XAUUSD 4H

Sample: 18,131 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-09
Number of Neutral occurrences: 1,446 times

▸When XAUUSD is in Neutral:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 755 times — 52.2%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 691 times — 47.8%

▸Current XAUUSD market energy: -20.5%

  • Distance to upper bound of Neutral (at 20.88%): 41.38%
  • Distance to lower bound of Neutral (at -20.88%): 0.38%

"Let data guide you, but never trust it completely" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H4 · 2026-06-29 17:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live XAUUSD chart →
Market Energy
-9.3%
Neutral
-20.5%
Neutral
-50.7%
Bear Bias
Zone
-20.88 – 20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Per 2AiTrading Market Energy model, XAUUSD on 4H is in neutral with energy -20.5. Energy changed -11.2 from previous candle. State held for 3 consecutive candles.

XAUUSD on 4H timeframe is currently in neutral state, as measured by 2AiTrading's Market Energy model. Market Energy reads -20.5, indicating the current level of control between Buyers and Sellers.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -71.2 to +86.8.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XAUUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 00:00 on 30-06-2026 closed, XAUUSD was at 4,016.96, down 0.17% from the previous candle (4,023.98). Market Energy was -20.5%, down 11.2 points from -9.3%, in the Neutral state — the market is neutral. The Neutral zone spans -20.88% to 20.88%.

How much did XAUUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

XAUUSD closed at 4,016.96, down 0.17% from the previous 4H candle (4,023.98). This drop is larger than 51% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD, across 11,578 candles since 2019.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 11.2 percentage points from the previous candle — from -9.3% to -20.5%. This drop is larger than 56% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD.

Do XAUUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had XAUUSD at -9.3%, Neutral — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Neutral zone?

At -20.5%, XAUUSD is 41.38 points from the upper boundary of Neutral (20.88%) and 0.38 points from the lower boundary (-20.88%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Neutral mean?

Neutral is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Neutral definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 82%; GER40 (European equities) in Neutral with energy -5.8%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Neutral, -20.5%) lower than SPX500; sits in the same state zone as GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Extreme with Market Energy -85.6%. XAUUSD energy is currently above DXY by 65.1 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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