Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
XAUUSD from 3,353.48 to 3,367.02, up 0.40%
Market Energy Bear Extreme -98.9% to Bear Extreme -84.2%, up 14.7 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▼ 0.26%▼ 0.38%▼ 0.48%▲ 0.40%
Energy▲ 7.5▼ 7.7▼ 8.9▲ 14.7
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▼ 0.26%▼ 0.38%▼ 0.48%▲ 0.40%▲ 7.5▼ 7.7▼ 8.9▲ 14.7
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 0.40% — higher than 81% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy up 14.7 pts — higher than 63% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme XAUUSD 4H

Sample: 18,130 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-09
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 587 times

▸When XAUUSD is in Bear Extreme:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 587 times — 100%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 0 times — 0%

▸Current XAUUSD market energy: -84.21%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 9.71%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 15.79%

"Why does archaeology matter?" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H4 · 2025-07-24 13:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-98.9%
Bear Extreme
-84.2%
Bear Extreme
-77.3%
Bear Extreme
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Once measurement on the 4H timeframe completes, XAUUSD recorded in the Extreme state of Bear.

On the energy side, Market Energy moved from -98.9% to -84.2%, up +14.7% from the previous candle.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 7 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -98.9 to +100.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XAUUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 20:00 on 24-07-2025 closed, XAUUSD was at 3,367.02, up 0.4% from the previous candle (3,353.48). Market Energy was -84.2%, up 14.7 points from -98.9%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did XAUUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

XAUUSD closed at 3,367.02, up 0.4% from the previous 4H candle (3,353.48). This rise is larger than 81% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD, across 10,144 candles since 2019.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 14.7 percentage points from the previous candle — from -98.9% to -84.2%. This rise is larger than 63% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD.

Do XAUUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved up on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had XAUUSD at -98.9%, Bear Extreme — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -84.2%, XAUUSD is 9.71 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 15.79 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 55.8%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Extreme with energy -78.7%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bear Extreme, -84.2%) lower than SPX500; sits in the same state zone as GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy -15.8%. XAUUSD energy is currently below DXY by 68.4 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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