Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
XAUUSD from 1,845.88 to 1,847.02, up 0.06%
Market Energy Bull Bias 58.4% to Bull Critical 74.0%, up 15.6 pts
Up candle #4 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.16%▲ 0.01%▲ 0.37%▲ 0.06%
Energy▲ 13.8▲ 1.5▲ 43.2▲ 15.6
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.16%▲ 0.01%▲ 0.37%▲ 0.06%▲ 13.8▲ 1.5▲ 43.2▲ 15.6
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 0.06% — higher than 20% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy up 15.6 pts — higher than 66% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bull Critical XAUUSD 4H

Sample: 18,129 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-08
Number of Bull Critical occurrences: 957 times

▸When XAUUSD is in Bull Critical:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 318 times — 33.2%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 639 times — 66.8%

▸Current XAUUSD market energy: 74.02%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bull Critical (at 74.5%): 0.48%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bull Critical (at 60%): 14.02%

"Past — present — future. The past and present are known. The future is yours" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H4 · 2023-03-03 10:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
58.4%
Bull Bias
74.0%
Bull Critical
62.8%
Bull Critical
Zone
60 – 74.5
Bias
Buyers in control
Explanation

The near-extreme Bull energy state recorded from just-completed 4H candle data for XAUUSD.

On the energy side, Market Energy moved from 58.4% to 74%, up +15.6% from the previous candle.

Time in Bull Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -81.6 to +93.1.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XAUUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 17:00 on 03-03-2023 closed, XAUUSD was at 1,847.02, up 0.06% from the previous candle (1,845.88). Market Energy was 74%, up 15.6 points from 58.4%, in the Bull Critical state — controlled by buyers. The Bull Critical zone spans 60% to 74.5%.

How much did XAUUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

XAUUSD closed at 1,847.02, up 0.06% from the previous 4H candle (1,845.88). This rise is larger than 20% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD, across 6,442 candles since 2019.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 15.6 percentage points from the previous candle — from 58.4% to 74%. This rise is larger than 66% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for XAUUSD.

Do XAUUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price rose and energy rose — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had XAUUSD at 58.4%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, XAUUSD moved up to a higher zone: Bull Bias → Bull Critical.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bull Critical zone?

At 74%, XAUUSD is 0.48 points from the upper boundary of Bull Critical (74.5%) and 14.02 points from the lower boundary (60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bull Critical mean?

Bull Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bull Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 93%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 97.2%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bull Critical, 74%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy -6.3%. XAUUSD energy is currently above DXY by 80.3 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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