Analysis

·

Candle open
Price and energy
USDCAD from 1.3858 to 1.3845, down 0.09%
Market Energy Bear Critical -70.0% to Bear Critical -62.8%, up 7.2 pts
Energy diverges from price
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▼ 1.01%▲ 0.13%▲ 0.16%▼ 0.09%
Energy▼ 25.1▼ 7.7▲ 10.1▲ 7.2
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▼ 1.01%▲ 0.13%▲ 0.16%▼ 0.09%▼ 25.1▼ 7.7▲ 10.1▲ 7.2
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.09% — higher than 30% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy up 7.2 pts — higher than 36% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical USDCAD Daily

Sample: 4,050 Daily candles from 2013-01-02 to 2026-10-05
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 130 times

▸When USDCAD is in Bear Critical:

  • then USDCAD moved to higher Market State: 95 times — 73.1%
  • then USDCAD moved to lower Market State: 35 times — 26.9%

▸Current USDCAD market energy: -62.79%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 2.79%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 11.71%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

USDCAD · D1 · 2025-12-09 00:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live USDCAD chart →
Market Energy
-70.0%
Bear Critical
-62.8%
Bear Critical
-69.4%
Bear Critical
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Following the completion of the Daily candle, USDCAD in the near-extreme Bear energy zone.

On the measurement side, Market Energy reading rose +7.2%, moving from -70% to -62.8% after the Daily candle.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 Daily Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDCAD Market Energy ranged from -80.1 to -47.3.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDCAD price and energy show when this Daily candle closed?

When the Daily candle at 07:00 on 09-12-2025 closed, USDCAD was at 1.3845, down 0.09% from the previous candle (1.3858). Market Energy was -62.8%, up 7.2 points from -70%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did USDCAD price move on this Daily candle, and how large is that historically?

USDCAD closed at 1.3845, down 0.09% from the previous Daily candle (1.3858). This drop is larger than 30% of past drops on the Daily timeframe for USDCAD, across 2,169 candles since 2019.

How did USDCAD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 7.2 percentage points from the previous candle — from -70% to -62.8%. This rise is larger than 36% of past rises on the Daily timeframe for USDCAD.

Do USDCAD price and energy agree?

No. On this candle price fell but energy rose — the two moved in opposite directions. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDCAD in on the previous Daily candle?

The previous Daily candle had USDCAD at -70%, Bear Critical — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does USDCAD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -62.8%, USDCAD is 2.79 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 11.71 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 21.3%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 26.5%. Against this backdrop, USDCAD (Bear Critical, -62.8%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 46%. USDCAD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDCAD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDCAD on the USDCAD overview →

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