Analysis

·

Candle close
Price and energy
USDCAD from 1.4271 to 1.4242, down 0.20%
Market Energy Bull Bias 38.6% to Bear Critical -61.6%, down 100.2 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.02%▲ 0.02%▲ 0.03%▼ 0.20%
Energy▲ 5.5▲ 9.6▼ 1.0▼ 100.2
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.02%▲ 0.02%▲ 0.03%▼ 0.20%▲ 5.5▲ 9.6▼ 1.0▼ 100.2
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.20% — higher than 85% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 100.2 pts — largest on record (since 2019)
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical USDCAD 4H

Sample: 18,292 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-05
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 608 times

▸When USDCAD is in Bear Critical:

  • then USDCAD moved to higher Market State: 418 times — 68.8%
  • then USDCAD moved to lower Market State: 190 times — 31.3%

▸Current USDCAD market energy: -61.58%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 1.58%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 12.92%

"A person's history reveals more than you might think" — 2AITRADING

USDCAD · H4 · 2026-10-06 09:00 UTC
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Market Energy
38.6%
Bull Bias
-61.6%
Bear Critical
Expected at
00:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Observing the completed 4H candle, Market Energy of USDCAD indicates the Bear Critical state.

The energy side shows Market Energy dropped -100.2% from the previous session, from 38.6% to -61.6%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDCAD Market Energy ranged from -61.6 to +80.2.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDCAD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 16:00 on 06-10-2026 closed, USDCAD was at 1.4242, down 0.2% from the previous candle (1.4271). Market Energy was -61.6%, down 100.2 points from 38.6%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did USDCAD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDCAD closed at 1.4242, down 0.2% from the previous 4H candle (1.4271). This drop is larger than 85% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCAD, across 12,088 candles since 2019.

How did USDCAD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 100.2 percentage points from the previous candle — from 38.6% to -61.6%. This is the largest of all drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCAD on record since 2019.

Do USDCAD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDCAD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDCAD at 38.6%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, USDCAD moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does USDCAD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -61.6%, USDCAD is 1.58 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 12.92 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Critical with energy 65.9%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Critical with energy 64.9%. Against this backdrop, USDCAD (Bear Critical, -61.6%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Extreme with Market Energy -91.2%. USDCAD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDCAD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDCAD on the USDCAD overview →

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