Analysis

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Price and energy
POLUSD from 0.1583 to 0.1517, down 4.17%
Market Energy Bull Extreme 83.2% to Bull Critical 72.9%, down 10.3 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price5.17%3.03%9.85%4.17%
Energy10.515.810.310.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
5.17% 3.03% 9.85% 4.17% 10.5 15.8 10.3 10.3
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 4.17% — higher than 96% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 10.3 pts — higher than 55% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bull Critical POLUSD 4H

Sample: 4,373 4H candles from 2024-09-13 to 2026-09-12
Number of Bull Critical occurrences: 134 times

When POLUSD is in Bull Critical:

  • then POLUSD moved to higher Market State: 38 times28.4%
  • then POLUSD moved to lower Market State: 96 times71.6%

Current POLUSD market energy: 72.89%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bull Critical (at 74.5%): 1.61%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bull Critical (at 60%): 12.89%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

POLUSD · H4 · 2026-01-09 16:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
83.2%
Bull Extreme
72.9%
Bull Critical
67.7%
Bull Critical
Zone
60 – 74.5
Bias
Buyers in control
Explanation

The system just recorded POLUSD in the Bull Critical state after the 4H candle closed.

At the 4H session close, Market Energy at 72.9%, down -10.3% from 83.2% in the previous candle.

Time in Bull Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, POLUSD Market Energy ranged from -20 to +88.7.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did POLUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 23:00 on 09-01-2026 closed, POLUSD was at 0.1517, down 4.17% from the previous candle (0.1583). Market Energy was 72.9%, down 10.3 points from 83.2%, in the Bull Critical state — controlled by buyers. The Bull Critical zone spans 60% to 74.5%.

How much did POLUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

POLUSD closed at 0.1517, down 4.17% from the previous 4H candle (0.1583). This drop is larger than 96% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for POLUSD, across 2,899 candles since 2019.

How did POLUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 10.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from 83.2% to 72.9%. This drop is larger than 55% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for POLUSD.

Do POLUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. This candle recorded price moving down in the same direction as energy. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was POLUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had POLUSD at 83.2%, Bull Extreme — when this candle closed, POLUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bull Extreme → Bull Critical.

Where does POLUSD energy sit within the Bull Critical zone?

At 72.9%, POLUSD is 1.61 points from the upper boundary of Bull Critical (74.5%) and 12.89 points from the lower boundary (60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bull Critical mean?

Bull Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bull Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 75.1%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Critical with energy 67.3%. Against this backdrop, POLUSD (Bull Critical, 72.9%) lower than SPX500; sits in the same state zone as GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy 13.8%. POLUSD energy is currently above DXY by 59.1 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for POLUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for POLUSD on the POLUSD overview →

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