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Research

SMC W: Energy Zone Transition Trends

Candle open

Study type
Historical statistics
Question answered
Direction of market moves
Principle
Once a candle closes, its data is locked and never changes, so it can be observed over time
Candles studied
751 SMC W candles
Period
2012-03-26 – 2026-10-12 (14.5 years)
Result
7-zone table below ↓
Other timeframes
D1H
ENERGY SHIFTS
↑ % moved higher↓ % moved lower★ current★ previous candle
Bull Extreme34 times
↑0%
↓100%
Bull Critical44 times
↑36.4%
↓63.6%
Bull Bias62 times
↑43.5%
↓56.5%
Neutral★★61 times
↑57.4%
↓42.6%
Bear Bias43 times
↑72.1%
↓27.9%
Bear Critical25 times
↑60%
↓40%
Bear Extreme20 times
↑100%
↓0%
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this study. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Market Energy→Market State→Threshold→Neutral→

SMC — Bear Extreme — W

Occurrences: 20 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 20 times — 100%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 0 times — 0%

SMC — Bear Critical — W

Occurrences: 25 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 15 times — 60%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 10 times — 40%

SMC — Bear Bias — W

Occurrences: 43 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 31 times — 72.1%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 12 times — 27.9%

SMC — Neutral — W

◉ CURRENT CANDLE

Occurrences: 61 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 35 times — 57.4%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 26 times — 42.6%

Current market energy at -4%
Distance to upper bound of Neutral (at 20.88%): 24.88 points
Distance to lower bound of Neutral (at -20.88%): 16.88 points

SMC — Bull Bias — W

Occurrences: 62 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 27 times — 43.5%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 35 times — 56.5%

SMC — Bull Critical — W

Occurrences: 44 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 16 times — 36.4%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 28 times — 63.6%

SMC — Bull Extreme — W

Occurrences: 34 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 0 times — 0%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 34 times — 100%

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What is the trend of SMC?

Historically, when SMC was in the Neutral zone, the market moved up to a higher zone 57.4% of the time and down to a lower zone 42.6% of the time (across 61 observations).

Where is the market within its current zone?

The Neutral zone spans -20.88% to 20.88%. The market is at -4%, 24.88 points from the upper bound and 16.88 points from the lower bound — closer to the lower bound of the zone.

How are these statistics calculated?

Each closed candle carries an energy state. A transition is counted when the next candle carries a DIFFERENT state; moving up means a higher-energy zone, moving down a lower one. Percentages are frequencies observed across the full sample.

Where does the data come from and how many candles?

The sample contains 751 candles from 2012-03-26 to 2026-10-12, computed with 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Data is captured at candle close and locked immutable over time to keep the statistics stable.

Are these numbers a prediction?

No. These are historical frequencies describing SMC's past behavior — not future probabilities and not buy/sell advice. Investors should combine them with their own trading method and do full research before applying.

What are the 7 market energy states?

Market Energy measures the market on a -100% to +100% scale, split into 7 zones from Bear Extreme to Bull Extreme; every closed candle belongs to exactly one zone.

See all 7 Market States →

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