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Research

SMC D: Energy Zone Transition Trends

Candle open

Study type
Historical statistics
Question answered
Direction of market moves
Principle
Once a candle closes, its data is locked and never changes, so it can be observed over time
Candles studied
3,640 SMC D candles
Period
2012-03-21 – 2026-10-22 (14.6 years)
Result
7-zone table below ↓
Other timeframes
W1H
ENERGY SHIFTS
↑ % moved higher↓ % moved lower★ current★ previous candle
Bull Extreme★★188 times
↑0%
↓100%
Bull Critical228 times
↑32.9%
↓67.1%
Bull Bias289 times
↑50.2%
↓49.8%
Neutral230 times
↑58.7%
↓41.3%
Bear Bias218 times
↑62.8%
↓37.2%
Bear Critical120 times
↑70%
↓30%
Bear Extreme113 times
↑100%
↓0%
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this study. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Market Energy→Market State→Threshold→Bull Extreme→Buyers→

SMC — Bear Extreme — D

Occurrences: 113 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 113 times — 100%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 0 times — 0%

SMC — Bear Critical — D

Occurrences: 120 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 84 times — 70%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 36 times — 30%

SMC — Bear Bias — D

Occurrences: 218 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 137 times — 62.8%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 81 times — 37.2%

SMC — Neutral — D

Occurrences: 230 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 135 times — 58.7%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 95 times — 41.3%

SMC — Bull Bias — D

Occurrences: 289 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 145 times — 50.2%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 144 times — 49.8%

SMC — Bull Critical — D

Occurrences: 228 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 75 times — 32.9%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 153 times — 67.1%

SMC — Bull Extreme — D

◉ CURRENT CANDLE

Occurrences: 188 times
Then moved up to a higher zone: 0 times — 0%
Then moved down to a lower zone: 188 times — 100%

Current market energy at 90.14%
Distance to peak 100%: 9.86 points
Distance to lower bound of Bull Extreme (at 74.5%): 15.64 points
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What is the trend of SMC?

Historically, when SMC was in the Bull Extreme zone, the market moved up to a higher zone 0% of the time and down to a lower zone 100% of the time (across 188 observations).

Where is the market within its current zone?

The Bull Extreme zone spans 74.5% to 100%. The market is at 90.14%, 9.86 points from the upper bound and 15.64 points from the lower bound — closer to the upper bound of the zone.

How are these statistics calculated?

Each closed candle carries an energy state. A transition is counted when the next candle carries a DIFFERENT state; moving up means a higher-energy zone, moving down a lower one. Percentages are frequencies observed across the full sample.

Where does the data come from and how many candles?

The sample contains 3,640 candles from 2012-03-21 to 2026-10-22, computed with 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Data is captured at candle close and locked immutable over time to keep the statistics stable.

Are these numbers a prediction?

No. These are historical frequencies describing SMC's past behavior — not future probabilities and not buy/sell advice. Investors should combine them with their own trading method and do full research before applying.

What are the 7 market energy states?

Market Energy measures the market on a -100% to +100% scale, split into 7 zones from Bear Extreme to Bull Extreme; every closed candle belongs to exactly one zone.

See all 7 Market States →

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