Analysis

·

Candle close
Price and energy
XPDUSD from 1,207.8 to 1,224.25, up 1.36%
Market Energy Bear Extreme -91.1% to Bear Critical -60.5%, up 30.6 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▼ 0.08%▼ 0.68%▼ 0.28%▲ 1.36%
Energy▲ 10.4▲ 1.2▼ 7.0▲ 30.6
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▼ 0.08%▼ 0.68%▼ 0.28%▲ 1.36%▲ 10.4▲ 1.2▼ 7.0▲ 30.6
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 1.36% — higher than 81% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy up 30.6 pts — higher than 73% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical XPDUSD 4H

Sample: 239 4H candles from 2026-07-23 to 2026-09-28
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 8 times

▸When XPDUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then XPDUSD moved to higher Market State: 5 times — 62.5%
  • then XPDUSD moved to lower Market State: 3 times — 37.5%

▸Current XPDUSD market energy: -60.54%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 0.54%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 13.96%

"Why does archaeology matter?" — 2AITRADING

XPDUSD · H4 · 2026-09-29 05:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live XPDUSD chart →
Market Energy
-91.1%
Bear Extreme
-60.5%
Bear Critical
Expected at
20:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

As the 4H candle closes, XPDUSD in the near-extreme Bear energy level.

On the 2AiTrading energy system, Market trend energy recorded a +30.6% rise from the previous candle, from -91.1% to -60.5%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XPDUSD Market Energy ranged from -97.2 to +15.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XPDUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 12:00 on 29-09-2026 closed, XPDUSD was at 1,224.25, up 1.36% from the previous candle (1,207.8). Market Energy was -60.5%, up 30.6 points from -91.1%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did XPDUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

XPDUSD closed at 1,224.25, up 1.36% from the previous 4H candle (1,207.8). This rise is larger than 81% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for XPDUSD, across 240 candles since 2019.

How did XPDUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 30.6 percentage points from the previous candle — from -91.1% to -60.5%. This rise is larger than 73% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for XPDUSD.

Do XPDUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price rose and energy rose — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was XPDUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had XPDUSD at -91.1%, Bear Extreme — when this candle closed, XPDUSD moved up to a higher zone: Bear Extreme → Bear Critical.

Where does XPDUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -60.5%, XPDUSD is 0.54 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 13.96 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -59.6%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Extreme with energy -82.7%. Against this backdrop, XPDUSD (Bear Critical, -60.5%) has higher energy than GER40; lower than SPX500.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Critical with Market Energy 72.4%. XPDUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XPDUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XPDUSD on the XPDUSD overview →

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