Analysis

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Price and energy
XAUUSD from 4,288.5 to 4,282.35, down 0.14%
Market Energy Bear Bias -58.5% to Bear Critical -61.3%, down 2.8 pts
Down candle #3 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.80%0.38%1.02%0.14%
Energy5.50.64.22.8
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.80% 0.38% 1.02% 0.14% 5.5 0.6 4.2 2.8
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.14% — higher than 25% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 2.8 pts — higher than 15% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical XAUUSD Daily

Sample: 3,985 Daily candles from 2013-01-03 to 2026-09-14
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 193 times

When XAUUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 126 times65.3%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 67 times34.7%

Current XAUUSD market energy: -61.26%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 1.26%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 13.24%

"To truly understand anything, study its history" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · D1 · 2026-09-15 00:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-58.5%
Bear Bias
-61.3%
Bear Critical
Expected at
07:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

XAUUSD classified into the Bear Critical zone after the Daily candle completed.

Per the 2AiTrading energy measurement system, Market Energy dropped -2.8% this candle, currently -61.3% (previous candle -58.5%).

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 Daily Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -61.3 to -53.7.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did XAUUSD price and energy show when this Daily candle closed?

When the Daily candle at 07:00 on 15-09-2026 closed, XAUUSD was at 4,282.35, down 0.14% from the previous candle (4,288.5). Market Energy was -61.3%, down 2.8 points from -58.5%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did XAUUSD price move on this Daily candle, and how large is that historically?

XAUUSD closed at 4,282.35, down 0.14% from the previous Daily candle (4,288.5). This drop is larger than 25% of past drops on the Daily timeframe for XAUUSD, across 2,397 candles since 2019.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 2.8 percentage points from the previous candle — from -58.5% to -61.3%. This drop is larger than 15% of past drops on the Daily timeframe for XAUUSD.

Do XAUUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous Daily candle?

The previous Daily candle had XAUUSD at -58.5%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, XAUUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -61.3%, XAUUSD is 1.26 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 13.24 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 35.6%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 56%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bear Critical, -61.3%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy 2.8%. XAUUSD energy is currently below DXY by 64.1 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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