Analysis

·

Candle close
Price and energy
USDJPY from 157.294 to 157.115, down 0.11%
Market Energy Neutral -16.6% to Bear Bias -35.9%, down 19.3 pts
Down candle #2 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▼ 0.02%▲ 0.08%▼ 0.11%▼ 0.11%
Energy▼ 0.2▲ 8.7▼ 8.0▼ 19.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▼ 0.02%▲ 0.08%▼ 0.11%▼ 0.11%▼ 0.2▲ 8.7▼ 8.0▼ 19.3
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.11% — higher than 56% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 19.3 pts — higher than 72% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Bias USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,271 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-29
Number of Bear Bias occurrences: 1,412 times

▸When USDJPY is in Bear Bias:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 903 times — 64%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 509 times — 36%

▸Current USDJPY market energy: -35.91%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Bias (at -20.88%): 15.03%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Bias (at -60%): 24.09%

"To truly understand anything, study its history" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-09-29 21:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-16.6%
Neutral
-35.9%
Bear Bias
Expected at
12:10
Zone
-60 – -20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

The Bear Bias zone determined for USDJPY through the 4H candle data.

Meanwhile, Market Energy dropped -19.3% from the previous session, from -16.6% to -35.9%.

Time in Bear Bias energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -96.7 to +67.3.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 04:00 on 30-09-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 157.115, down 0.11% from the previous candle (157.294). Market Energy was -35.9%, down 19.3 points from -16.6%, in the Bear Bias state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Bias zone spans -60% to -20.88%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 157.115, down 0.11% from the previous 4H candle (157.294). This drop is larger than 56% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 12,061 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 19.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from -16.6% to -35.9%. This drop is larger than 72% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. This candle recorded price moving down in the same direction as energy. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at -16.6%, Neutral — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved down to a lower zone: Neutral → Bear Bias.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Bias zone?

At -35.9%, USDJPY is 15.03 points from the upper boundary of Bear Bias (-20.88%) and 24.09 points from the lower boundary (-60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Bias mean?

Bear Bias is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Bias definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Neutral with energy 4.5%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 22.6%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Bias, -35.9%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -41.2%. USDJPY (Bear Bias) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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