Analysis

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Price and energy
USDJPY from 154.301 to 154.343, up 0.03%
Market Energy Bear Extreme -87.6% to Bear Extreme -88.0%, down 0.4 pts
Energy diverges from price
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price1.01%0.01%0.12%0.03%
Energy61.312.41.90.4
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
1.01% 0.01% 0.12% 0.03% 61.3 12.4 1.9 0.4
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 0.03% — higher than 17% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy down 0.4 pts — higher than 2% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,204 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-14
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 578 times

When USDJPY is in Bear Extreme:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 578 times100%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 0 times0%

Current USDJPY market energy: -87.99%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 13.49%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 12.01%

"History always repeats itself, one way or another" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-09-07 17:00 UTC
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Market Energy
-87.6%
Bear Extreme
-88.0%
Bear Extreme
-84.8%
Bear Extreme
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, USDJPY noted at the peak Bear energy state.

Market trend energy Market Energy reading dropped -0.4%, moving from -87.6% to -88% after the 4H candle.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 4 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -99.7 to -8.2.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 00:00 on 08-09-2026 closed, USDJPY was at 154.343, up 0.03% from the previous candle (154.301). Market Energy was -88%, down 0.4 points from -87.6%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 154.343, up 0.03% from the previous 4H candle (154.301). This rise is larger than 17% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY, across 11,964 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 0.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from -87.6% to -88%. This drop is larger than 2% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

No. Price moved up while energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at -87.6%, Bear Extreme — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -88%, USDJPY is 13.49 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 12.01 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Critical with energy -61.6%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 25.3%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Extreme, -88%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Critical with Market Energy -64.6%. USDJPY (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

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Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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