Analysis

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Price and energy
USDJPY from 159.356 to 157.553, down 1.13%
Market Energy Bear Critical -62.3% to Bear Extreme -84.7%, down 22.4 pts
Down candle #2 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 1.13% — largest on record (since 2019)
Energy down 22.4 pts — higher than 75% of past drops
Volatility trend · last 4 candlespriceenergy
1.251.070.631.1318.715.55.622.4-3-2-1nến này
USDJPY hub
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme USDJPY 4H

Sample: 18,139 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-08-28
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 576 times

When USDJPY is in Bear Extreme:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 576 times100%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 0 times0%

Current USDJPY market energy: -84.69%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 10.19%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 15.31%

"History always repeats itself, one way or another" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H4 · 2026-07-31 17:00 UTC
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Market Energy
-62.3%
Bear Critical
-84.7%
Bear Extreme
-94.3%
Bear Extreme
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

From the just-closed 4H candle data, USDJPY reflects Bear energy in an extreme reading.

Market energy movement Compared to the previous candle (-62.3%), Market Energy dropped -22.4% to -84.7%.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -86.7 to +71.1.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What state was USDJPY on 4H when this candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 00:00 on 01-08-2026 closed, USDJPY was in Bear Extreme with Market Energy -84.7%, controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 22.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from -62.3% to -84.7%.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDJPY at -62.3%, Bear Critical — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved down to a lower zone: Bear Critical → Bear Extreme.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -84.7%, USDJPY is 10.19 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 15.31 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Critical with energy 60.9%; GER40 (European equities) in Neutral with energy -8%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Extreme, -84.7%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Extreme with Market Energy -86.6%. USDJPY (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

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Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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