Analysis

USDCHF 0.82678 ↓0.21%: Bears in the peak-force zone · 4H 04:00 Oct 16, 2026

·
Candle close
Price and energy
Open 0.82849 · High 0.82855 · Low 0.82646 · Close 0.82678 · Range (high − low) 0.002085
USDCHF closed at 0.82678, down 0.00172 (-0.21%) from 0.8285.
Bull–Bear energy behind the price: the market moved from the Bear Critical zone at -62.1% to Bear Extreme at -75.6%, down 13.5 points.
Fourth straight down candle, price and energy are moving down together.
Price and energy · last 4 candles
Price0.829720.829230.82850.82678
Energy-57.9%-60.1%-62.1%-75.6%
Price change↓ 0.03%↓ 0.06%↓ 0.09%↓ 0.21%
Energy change↑ 14.2↓ 2.2↓ 2.0↓ 13.5
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
↓ 0.03%↓ 0.06%↓ 0.09%↓ 0.21%↑ 14.2↓ 2.2↓ 2.0↓ 13.5
Δ priceΔ energy↑ up · ↓ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.21% — higher than 80% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 13.5 pts — higher than 65% of past drops
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme USDCHF 4H

Sample: 18,365 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-10-22
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 265 times

▸When USDCHF is in Bear Extreme:

  • then USDCHF moved to higher Market State: 265 times — 100%
  • then USDCHF moved to lower Market State: 0 times — 0%

▸Current USDCHF market energy: -75.58%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 1.08%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 24.42%

"If history reveals a pattern, remember — nothing is ever absolutely 100%" — 2AITRADING

USDCHF · H4 · 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live USDCHF chart →
Market Energy
-62.1%
Bear Critical
-75.6%
Bear Extreme
-66.6%
Bear Critical
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

The Bear Extreme state recorded from just-completed 4H candle data for USDCHF.

Market energy measurement Energy delta -13.5%: Market Energy at -75.6%, previously -62.1%.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDCHF Market Energy ranged from -75.6 to 100.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDCHF price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle closed at 04:00 on 16-10-2026, USDCHF was at 0.82678, down 0.21% from the previous candle (0.8285). Market Energy was -75.6%, down 13.5 points from -62.1%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did USDCHF price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDCHF closed at 0.82678, down 0.21% from the previous 4H candle (0.8285). This drop is larger than 80% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCHF, across 12,132 candles since 2019.

How did USDCHF Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 13.5 percentage points from the previous candle — from -62.1% to -75.6%. This drop is larger than 65% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCHF.

Do USDCHF price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDCHF in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDCHF at -62.1%, Bear Critical — when this candle closed, USDCHF moved down to a lower zone: Bear Critical → Bear Extreme.

Where does USDCHF energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -75.6%, USDCHF is 1.08 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 24.42 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 84.5%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 88.7%. Against this backdrop, USDCHF (Bear Extreme, -75.6%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -31.6%. USDCHF (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDCHF.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDCHF on the USDCHF overview →

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