Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
USDCHF from 0.82154 to 0.82112, down 0.05%
Market Energy Bear Bias -58.4% to Bear Critical -71.6%, down 13.2 pts
Down candle #2 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.07%0.03%0.22%0.05%
Energy10.315.016.113.2
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.07% 0.03% 0.22% 0.05% 10.3 15.0 16.1 13.2
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.05% — higher than 32% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 13.2 pts — higher than 65% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical USDCHF 4H

Sample: 18,226 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-20
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 557 times

When USDCHF is in Bear Critical:

  • then USDCHF moved to higher Market State: 379 times68%
  • then USDCHF moved to lower Market State: 178 times32%

Current USDCHF market energy: -71.6%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 11.6%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 2.9%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

USDCHF · H4 · 2026-09-21 13:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-58.4%
Bear Bias
-71.6%
Bear Critical
Expected at
04:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

As the 4H candle closes, USDCHF reflects Bear Critical of Market Energy.

The energy side shows The energy level dropped -13.2%: from -58.4% now at -71.6%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDCHF Market Energy ranged from -81.2 to +99.7.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDCHF price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 20:00 on 21-09-2026 closed, USDCHF was at 0.82112, down 0.05% from the previous candle (0.82154). Market Energy was -71.6%, down 13.2 points from -58.4%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did USDCHF price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDCHF closed at 0.82112, down 0.05% from the previous 4H candle (0.82154). This drop is larger than 32% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCHF, across 12,023 candles since 2019.

How did USDCHF Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 13.2 percentage points from the previous candle — from -58.4% to -71.6%. This drop is larger than 65% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for USDCHF.

Do USDCHF price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was USDCHF in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had USDCHF at -58.4%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, USDCHF moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does USDCHF energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -71.6%, USDCHF is 11.6 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 2.9 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Critical with energy 72.2%; GER40 (European equities) in Neutral with energy 7.8%. Against this backdrop, USDCHF (Bear Critical, -71.6%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Critical with Market Energy 68.9%. USDCHF (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDCHF.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDCHF on the USDCHF overview →

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