Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
NZDUSD from 0.57149 to 0.57083, down 0.11%
Market Energy Bear Bias -56.0% to Bear Critical -72.4%, down 16.4 pts
Down candle #3 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.05%0.19%0.09%0.11%
Energy14.029.437.516.4
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.05% 0.19% 0.09% 0.11% 14.0 29.4 37.5 16.4
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.11% — higher than 43% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 16.4 pts — higher than 68% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical NZDUSD 4H

Sample: 18,220 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-21
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 650 times

When NZDUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then NZDUSD moved to higher Market State: 466 times71.7%
  • then NZDUSD moved to lower Market State: 184 times28.3%

Current NZDUSD market energy: -72.35%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 12.35%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 2.15%

"Let data guide you, but never trust it completely" — 2AITRADING

NZDUSD · H4 · 2026-09-21 21:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-56.0%
Bear Bias
-72.4%
Bear Critical
43.5%
Bull Bias
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Right as the 4H candle closes, Market NZDUSD in the near-extreme Bear energy state.

Looking at the Market Energy reading, Market trend energy recorded a -16.4% drop from the previous candle, from -56% to -72.4%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, NZDUSD Market Energy ranged from -91.4 to +10.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did NZDUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 04:00 on 22-09-2026 closed, NZDUSD was at 0.57083, down 0.11% from the previous candle (0.57149). Market Energy was -72.4%, down 16.4 points from -56%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did NZDUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

NZDUSD closed at 0.57083, down 0.11% from the previous 4H candle (0.57149). This drop is larger than 43% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for NZDUSD, across 12,009 candles since 2019.

How did NZDUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 16.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from -56% to -72.4%. This drop is larger than 68% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for NZDUSD.

Do NZDUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was NZDUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had NZDUSD at -56%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, NZDUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does NZDUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -72.4%, NZDUSD is 12.35 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 2.15 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 76.8%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 24.6%. Against this backdrop, NZDUSD (Bear Critical, -72.4%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Critical with Market Energy 68.8%. NZDUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for NZDUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for NZDUSD on the NZDUSD overview →

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