Analysis

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Price and energy
NZDUSD from 0.57584 to 0.57136, down 0.78%
Market Energy Neutral -0.9% to Bear Extreme -79.5%, down 78.6 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.19%0.05%0.00%0.78%
Energy36.028.62.178.6
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.19% 0.05% 0.00% 0.78% 36.0 28.6 2.1 78.6
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.78% — higher than 98% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 78.6 pts — largest on record (since 2019)
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme NZDUSD 4H

Sample: 18,200 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-16
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 260 times

When NZDUSD is in Bear Extreme:

  • then NZDUSD moved to higher Market State: 260 times100%
  • then NZDUSD moved to lower Market State: 0 times0%

Current NZDUSD market energy: -79.49%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 4.99%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 20.51%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

NZDUSD · H4 · 2026-09-16 17:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-0.9%
Neutral
-79.5%
Bear Extreme
Expected at
08:10
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Right as the 4H candle closes, NZDUSD within the peak Bear energy level.

Market trend energy Market Energy dropped -78.6% from the previous session, from -0.9% to -79.5%.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, NZDUSD Market Energy ranged from -99.3 to -0.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did NZDUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 00:00 on 17-09-2026 closed, NZDUSD was at 0.57136, down 0.78% from the previous candle (0.57584). Market Energy was -79.5%, down 78.6 points from -0.9%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did NZDUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

NZDUSD closed at 0.57136, down 0.78% from the previous 4H candle (0.57584). This drop is larger than 98% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for NZDUSD, across 11,990 candles since 2019.

How did NZDUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 78.6 percentage points from the previous candle — from -0.9% to -79.5%. This is the largest of all drops on the 4H timeframe for NZDUSD on record since 2019.

Do NZDUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was NZDUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had NZDUSD at -0.9%, Neutral — when this candle closed, NZDUSD moved down to a lower zone: Neutral → Bear Extreme.

Where does NZDUSD energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -79.5%, NZDUSD is 4.99 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 20.51 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 41.4%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Critical with energy 63.3%. Against this backdrop, NZDUSD (Bear Extreme, -79.5%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 28%. NZDUSD (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for NZDUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for NZDUSD on the NZDUSD overview →

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