Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
GBPUSD from 1.3251 to 1.3212, down 0.29%
Market Energy Neutral 18.4% to Bear Extreme -77.5%, down 95.9 pts
Down candle #2 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▼ 0.00%▲ 0.03%▼ 0.14%▼ 0.29%
Energy▼ 11.7▲ 0.8▼ 28.1▼ 95.9
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▼ 0.00%▲ 0.03%▼ 0.14%▼ 0.29%▼ 11.7▲ 0.8▼ 28.1▼ 95.9
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.29% — higher than 87% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 95.9 pts — largest on record (since 2019)
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme GBPUSD 4H

Sample: 18,276 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-30
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 267 times

▸When GBPUSD is in Bear Extreme:

  • then GBPUSD moved to higher Market State: 267 times — 100%
  • then GBPUSD moved to lower Market State: 0 times — 0%

▸Current GBPUSD market energy: -77.49%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 2.99%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 22.51%

"A person's history reveals more than you might think" — 2AITRADING

GBPUSD · H4 · 2026-10-01 05:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
18.4%
Neutral
-77.5%
Bear Extreme
Expected at
20:10
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, GBPUSD currently in the Bear Extreme energy zone.

Market energy measurement Market Energy dropped -95.9% from the previous candle, from 18.4% to -77.5%.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, GBPUSD Market Energy ranged from -83.7 to +82.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did GBPUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 12:00 on 01-10-2026 closed, GBPUSD was at 1.3212, down 0.29% from the previous candle (1.3251). Market Energy was -77.5%, down 95.9 points from 18.4%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did GBPUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

GBPUSD closed at 1.3212, down 0.29% from the previous 4H candle (1.3251). This drop is larger than 87% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for GBPUSD, across 12,069 candles since 2019.

How did GBPUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 95.9 percentage points from the previous candle — from 18.4% to -77.5%. This is the largest of all drops on the 4H timeframe for GBPUSD on record since 2019.

Do GBPUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was GBPUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had GBPUSD at 18.4%, Neutral — when this candle closed, GBPUSD moved down to a lower zone: Neutral → Bear Extreme.

Where does GBPUSD energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -77.5%, GBPUSD is 2.99 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 22.51 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 96.6%; GER40 (European equities) in Neutral with energy -6.1%. Against this backdrop, GBPUSD (Bear Extreme, -77.5%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Extreme with Market Energy 95.8%. GBPUSD (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for GBPUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for GBPUSD on the GBPUSD overview →

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