Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
EURUSD from 1.1253 to 1.1251, down 0.02%
Market Energy Bear Extreme -77.1% to Bear Critical -71.2%, up 5.9 pts
Energy diverges from price
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.16%▼ 0.07%▲ 0.16%▼ 0.02%
Energy▲ 4.7▲ 3.6▲ 6.4▲ 5.9
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.16%▼ 0.07%▲ 0.16%▼ 0.02%▲ 4.7▲ 3.6▲ 6.4▲ 5.9
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.02% — higher than 13% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy up 5.9 pts — higher than 38% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical EURUSD 4H

Sample: 21,391 4H candles from 2013-01-02 to 2026-10-02
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 750 times

▸When EURUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then EURUSD moved to higher Market State: 537 times — 71.6%
  • then EURUSD moved to lower Market State: 213 times — 28.4%

▸Current EURUSD market energy: -71.23%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 11.23%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 3.27%

"History always repeats itself, one way or another" — 2AITRADING

EURUSD · H4 · 2026-10-02 05:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-77.1%
Bear Extreme
-71.2%
Bear Critical
Expected at
20:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Measurement result after the 4H candle closes, Market EURUSD in the near-peak Bear energy state.

Market trend energy The energy level rose +5.9%: from -77.1% now at -71.2%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, EURUSD Market Energy ranged from -91.9 to +37.6.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did EURUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 12:00 on 02-10-2026 closed, EURUSD was at 1.1251, down 0.02% from the previous candle (1.1253). Market Energy was -71.2%, up 5.9 points from -77.1%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did EURUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

EURUSD closed at 1.1251, down 0.02% from the previous 4H candle (1.1253). This drop is larger than 13% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for EURUSD, across 12,075 candles since 2019.

How did EURUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 5.9 percentage points from the previous candle — from -77.1% to -71.2%. This rise is larger than 38% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for EURUSD.

Do EURUSD price and energy agree?

No. This candle recorded a price decline with energy moving the other way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was EURUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had EURUSD at -77.1%, Bear Extreme — when this candle closed, EURUSD moved up to a higher zone: Bear Extreme → Bear Critical.

Where does EURUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -71.2%, EURUSD is 11.23 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 3.27 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 76.3%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 78.3%. Against this backdrop, EURUSD (Bear Critical, -71.2%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy -2.8%. EURUSD energy is currently below DXY by 68.5 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for EURUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for EURUSD on the EURUSD overview →

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