Analysis

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Price and energy
EURUSD from 1.1476 to 1.1475, down 0.01%
Market Energy Bear Bias -57.3% to Bear Critical -66.4%, down 9.1 pts
Down candle #2 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.06%0.16%0.13%0.01%
Energy6.136.10.19.1
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.06% 0.16% 0.13% 0.01% 6.1 36.1 0.1 9.1
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.01% — higher than 5% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 9.1 pts — higher than 51% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical EURUSD 4H

Sample: 21,324 4H candles from 2013-01-02 to 2026-09-16
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 742 times

When EURUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then EURUSD moved to higher Market State: 531 times71.6%
  • then EURUSD moved to lower Market State: 211 times28.4%

Current EURUSD market energy: -66.39%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 6.39%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 8.11%

"To truly understand anything, study its history" — 2AITRADING

EURUSD · H4 · 2026-09-17 17:00 UTC
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Market Energy
-57.3%
Bear Bias
-66.4%
Bear Critical
Expected at
08:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

As the 4H candle completes, EURUSD in the near-extreme Bear energy zone.

Market energy measurement Market Energy dropped -9.1% from the previous session, from -57.3% to -66.4%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, EURUSD Market Energy ranged from -99.6 to -24.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did EURUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 00:00 on 18-09-2026 closed, EURUSD was at 1.1475, down 0.01% from the previous candle (1.1476). Market Energy was -66.4%, down 9.1 points from -57.3%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did EURUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

EURUSD closed at 1.1475, down 0.01% from the previous 4H candle (1.1476). This drop is larger than 5% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for EURUSD, across 12,012 candles since 2019.

How did EURUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 9.1 percentage points from the previous candle — from -57.3% to -66.4%. This drop is larger than 51% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for EURUSD.

Do EURUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. This candle recorded price moving down in the same direction as energy. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was EURUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had EURUSD at -57.3%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, EURUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does EURUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -66.4%, EURUSD is 6.39 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 8.11 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 44.7%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Bias with energy -42.7%. Against this backdrop, EURUSD (Bear Critical, -66.4%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 32.1%. EURUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for EURUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for EURUSD on the EURUSD overview →

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