Analysis

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Price and energy
EURUSD from 1.1638 to 1.1604, down 0.29%
Market Energy Neutral 10.6% to Bear Critical -66.3%, down 76.8 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.02%0.05%0.01%0.29%
Energy5.43.63.576.8
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.02% 0.05% 0.01% 0.29% 5.4 3.6 3.5 76.8
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.29% — higher than 90% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 76.8 pts — largest on record (since 2019)
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical EURUSD 4H

Sample: 21,293 4H candles from 2013-01-02 to 2026-09-09
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 738 times

When EURUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then EURUSD moved to higher Market State: 527 times71.4%
  • then EURUSD moved to lower Market State: 211 times28.6%

Current EURUSD market energy: -66.26%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 6.26%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 8.24%

"History always repeats itself, one way or another" — 2AITRADING

EURUSD · H4 · 2026-09-10 09:00 UTC
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Market Energy
10.6%
Neutral
-66.3%
Bear Critical
Expected at
00:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Once measurement on the 4H timeframe completes, EURUSD reflects Bear Critical.

On the 2AiTrading energy system, Market trend energy recorded a -76.8% drop from the previous candle, from 10.6% to -66.3%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, EURUSD Market Energy ranged from -66.3 to +38.6.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did EURUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 16:00 on 10-09-2026 closed, EURUSD was at 1.1604, down 0.29% from the previous candle (1.1638). Market Energy was -66.3%, down 76.8 points from 10.6%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did EURUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

EURUSD closed at 1.1604, down 0.29% from the previous 4H candle (1.1638). This drop is larger than 90% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for EURUSD, across 11,980 candles since 2019.

How did EURUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 76.8 percentage points from the previous candle — from 10.6% to -66.3%. This is the largest of all drops on the 4H timeframe for EURUSD on record since 2019.

Do EURUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. This candle recorded price moving down in the same direction as energy. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was EURUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had EURUSD at 10.6%, Neutral — when this candle closed, EURUSD moved down to a lower zone: Neutral → Bear Critical.

Where does EURUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -66.3%, EURUSD is 6.26 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 8.24 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -53.8%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Critical with energy -73.9%. Against this backdrop, EURUSD (Bear Critical, -66.3%) lower than SPX500; sits in the same state zone as GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 31%. EURUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for EURUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for EURUSD on the EURUSD overview →

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