Analysis

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Price and energy
COTTON from 0.85356 to 0.85973, up 0.72%
Market Energy Bear Extreme -81.0% to Bear Critical -68.3%, up 12.7 pts
Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.47%0.88%0.15%0.72%
Energy6.49.77.412.7
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.47% 0.88% 0.15% 0.72% 6.4 9.7 7.4 12.7
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 0.72% — higher than 70% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy up 12.7 pts — higher than 56% of past rises
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical COTTON 4H

Sample: 151 4H candles from 2026-07-23 to 2026-09-15
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 3 times

When COTTON is in Bear Critical:

  • then COTTON moved to higher Market State: 1 times33.3%
  • then COTTON moved to lower Market State: 2 times66.7%

Current COTTON market energy: -68.26%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 8.26%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 6.24%

"History always repeats itself, one way or another" — 2AITRADING

COTTON · H4 · 2026-09-16 01:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-81.0%
Bear Extreme
-68.3%
Bear Critical
Expected at
16:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Reading from the 4H candle, COTTON currently in the Bear Critical state.

Market movement just recorded on the 4H timeframe, Energy delta +12.7%: Market Energy at -68.3%, previously -81%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, COTTON Market Energy ranged from -98.8 to +16.3.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did COTTON price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 08:00 on 16-09-2026 closed, COTTON was at 0.85973, up 0.72% from the previous candle (0.85356). Market Energy was -68.3%, up 12.7 points from -81%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did COTTON price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

COTTON closed at 0.85973, up 0.72% from the previous 4H candle (0.85356). This rise is larger than 70% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for COTTON, across 151 candles since 2019.

How did COTTON Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 12.7 percentage points from the previous candle — from -81% to -68.3%. This rise is larger than 56% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for COTTON.

Do COTTON price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price rose and energy rose — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was COTTON in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had COTTON at -81%, Bear Extreme — when this candle closed, COTTON moved up to a higher zone: Bear Extreme → Bear Critical.

Where does COTTON energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -68.3%, COTTON is 8.26 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 6.24 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -57.6%; GER40 (European equities) in Neutral with energy -11.9%. Against this backdrop, COTTON (Bear Critical, -68.3%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Critical with Market Energy 65.5%. COTTON (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for COTTON.

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Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for COTTON on the COTTON overview →

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