Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
AUDUSD from 0.71029 to 0.70857, down 0.24%
Market Energy Bear Bias -26.4% to Bear Critical -73.8%, down 47.4 pts
Down candle #2 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.12%0.02%0.18%0.24%
Energy16.89.920.247.4
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.12% 0.02% 0.18% 0.24% 16.8 9.9 20.2 47.4
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.24% — higher than 74% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 47.4 pts — higher than 97% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical AUDUSD 4H

Sample: 18,227 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-09-22
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 619 times

When AUDUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then AUDUSD moved to higher Market State: 439 times70.9%
  • then AUDUSD moved to lower Market State: 180 times29.1%

Current AUDUSD market energy: -73.81%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 13.81%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 0.69%

"History always repeats itself, one way or another" — 2AITRADING

AUDUSD · H4 · 2026-09-23 05:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-26.4%
Bear Bias
-73.8%
Bear Critical
-91.4%
Bear Extreme
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Observing the completed 4H candle, AUDUSD currently in Bear in Critical state.

Market trend update: Market Energy dropped -47.4% from the previous session, from -26.4% to -73.8%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, AUDUSD Market Energy ranged from -73.8 to +50.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did AUDUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 12:00 on 23-09-2026 closed, AUDUSD was at 0.70857, down 0.24% from the previous candle (0.71029). Market Energy was -73.8%, down 47.4 points from -26.4%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did AUDUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

AUDUSD closed at 0.70857, down 0.24% from the previous 4H candle (0.71029). This drop is larger than 74% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for AUDUSD, across 12,024 candles since 2019.

How did AUDUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 47.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from -26.4% to -73.8%. This drop is larger than 97% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for AUDUSD.

Do AUDUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was AUDUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had AUDUSD at -26.4%, Bear Bias — when this candle closed, AUDUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bear Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does AUDUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -73.8%, AUDUSD is 13.81 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 0.69 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 34.1%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 27.8%. Against this backdrop, AUDUSD (Bear Critical, -73.8%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Extreme with Market Energy 82.5%. AUDUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for AUDUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for AUDUSD on the AUDUSD overview →

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