Analysis

ADAUSD 0.2244 ↓3.11%: Bears have the edge · 4H 23:00 Oct 16, 2026

·
Candle close
Price and energy
Open 0.2316 · High 0.2318 · Low 0.2228 · Close 0.2244 · Range (high − low) 0.009
ADAUSD closed at 0.2244, down 0.0072 (-3.11%) from 0.2316.
Bull–Bear energy behind the price: the market moved from the Bull Bias zone at 46.2% to Bear Bias at -39.3%, down 85.5 points.
Price and energy are moving down together.
Price and energy · last 4 candles
Price0.22920.2310.23160.2244
Energy42.2%45.1%46.2%-39.3%
Price change↓ 0.39%↑ 0.79%↑ 0.26%↓ 3.11%
Energy change↓ 8.0↑ 2.9↑ 1.0↓ 85.5
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
↓ 0.39%↑ 0.79%↑ 0.26%↓ 3.11%↓ 8.0↑ 2.9↑ 1.0↓ 85.5
Δ priceΔ energy↑ up · ↓ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 3.11% — higher than 91% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 85.5 pts — largest on record (since 2019)
Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Bias ADAUSD 4H

Sample: 18,662 4H candles from 2018-04-17 to 2026-10-24
Number of Bear Bias occurrences: 1,376 times

▸When ADAUSD is in Bear Bias:

  • then ADAUSD moved to higher Market State: 985 times — 71.6%
  • then ADAUSD moved to lower Market State: 391 times — 28.4%

▸Current ADAUSD market energy: -39.28%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Bias (at -20.88%): 18.4%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Bias (at -60%): 20.72%

"A person's history reveals more than you might think" — 2AITRADING

ADAUSD · H4 · 2026-10-16 12:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live ADAUSD chart →
Market Energy
46.2%
Bull Bias
-39.3%
Bear Bias
-55.0%
Bear Bias
Zone
-60 – -20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Right as the 4H candle closes, Market ADAUSD in the energy zone tilted toward Bear.

Market energy movement Market trend energy recorded a -85.5% drop from the previous candle, from 46.2% to -39.3%.

Time in Bear Bias energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, ADAUSD Market Energy ranged from -94.1 to 71.

Frequently asked questions

What did ADAUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle closed at 23:00 on 16-10-2026, ADAUSD was at 0.2244, down 3.11% from the previous candle (0.2316). Market Energy was -39.3%, down 85.5 points from 46.2%, in the Bear Bias state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Bias zone spans -60% to -20.88%.

How much did ADAUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

ADAUSD closed at 0.2244, down 3.11% from the previous 4H candle (0.2316). This drop is larger than 91% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for ADAUSD, across 17,069 candles since 2019.

How did ADAUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 85.5 percentage points from the previous candle — from 46.2% to -39.3%. This is the largest of all drops on the 4H timeframe for ADAUSD on record since 2019.

Do ADAUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. Both price and energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was ADAUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had ADAUSD at 46.2%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, ADAUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Bear Bias.

Where does ADAUSD energy sit within the Bear Bias zone?

At -39.3%, ADAUSD is 18.4 points from the upper boundary of Bear Bias (-20.88%) and 20.72 points from the lower boundary (-60%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Bias mean?

Bear Bias is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Bias definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Neutral with energy -0.7%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 51.2%. Against this backdrop, ADAUSD (Bear Bias, -39.3%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 42.1%. ADAUSD (Bear Bias) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for ADAUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for ADAUSD on the ADAUSD overview →

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