Analysis

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XAUUSD is currently controlled by sellers, in the Bear Critical zone. Measured energy: -61.6%.

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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RESEARCH

UP–DOWN statistics for Bear Critical XAUUSD 4H

Sample: 17,964 4H candles from 2014-12-31 to 2026-08-24
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 857 times

When XAUUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 609 times71.1%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 248 times28.9%

Current XAUUSD market energy: -61.6%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 1.6%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 12.9%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H4 · 2021-12-21 02:00 UTC
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Market Energy
-73.2%
Bear Critical
-61.6%
Bear Critical
32.1%
Bull Bias
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, XAUUSD reflects the Bear Critical level.

Market trend on the 2AiTrading energy system Market Energy rose +11.6% from the previous session, from -73.2% to -61.6%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -73.2 to +99.4.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What state was XAUUSD on 4H when this candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 09:00 on 21-12-2021 closed, XAUUSD was in Bear Critical with Market Energy -61.6%, controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy rose 11.6 percentage points from the previous candle — from -73.2% to -61.6%.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had XAUUSD at -73.2%, Bear Critical — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -61.6%, XAUUSD is 1.6 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 12.9 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Critical with energy 65.3%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 89.8%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bear Critical, -61.6%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -24.1%. XAUUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. Method: see Guide.

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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