Analysis

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Price and energy
XAUUSD from 4,176.78 to 4,164.76, down 0.29%
Market Energy Bull Bias 38.4% to Bear Critical -61.5%, down 99.9 pts
Down candle #2 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.29% — higher than 89% of past drops
Energy down 99.9 pts — higher than 98% of past drops
Volatility trend · last 4 candlespriceenergy
0.120.090.100.293.82.911.399.9-3-2-1nến này
XAUUSD hub
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical XAUUSD 1H

Sample: 69,150 1H candles from 2015-01-02 to 2026-08-28
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 3,281 times

When XAUUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then XAUUSD moved to higher Market State: 2,405 times73.3%
  • then XAUUSD moved to lower Market State: 876 times26.7%

Current XAUUSD market energy: -61.5%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 1.5%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 13%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

XAUUSD · H1 · 2026-07-03 13:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
38.4%
Bull Bias
-61.5%
Bear Critical
-45.0%
Bear Bias
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Per 2AiTrading Market Energy model, XAUUSD on 1H is in bear critical with energy -61.5. Energy changed -99.9 from previous candle.

XAUUSD on 1H timeframe is currently in bear critical state, as measured by 2AiTrading's Market Energy model. Market Energy reads -61.5, indicating the current level of control between Buyers and Sellers.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, XAUUSD Market Energy ranged from -96.2 to +97.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What state was XAUUSD on 1H when this candle closed?

When the 1H candle at 20:00 on 03-07-2026 closed, XAUUSD was in Bear Critical with Market Energy -61.5%, controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How did XAUUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 99.9 percentage points from the previous candle — from 38.4% to -61.5%.

What state was XAUUSD in on the previous 1H candle?

The previous 1H candle had XAUUSD at 38.4%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, XAUUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does XAUUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -61.5%, XAUUSD is 1.5 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 13 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Neutral with energy 3.9%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 42%. Against this backdrop, XAUUSD (Bear Critical, -61.5%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Bias with Market Energy 21.9%. XAUUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for XAUUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for XAUUSD on the XAUUSD overview →

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