Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
USDJPY from 149.788 to 149.625, down 0.11%
Market Energy Bull Bias 39.6% to Bear Critical -65.0%, down 104.6 pts
Down candle #2 in a rowPrice and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.02%0.07%0.07%0.11%
Energy1.922.019.2104.6
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.02% 0.07% 0.07% 0.11% 1.9 22.0 19.2 104.6
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.11% — higher than 81% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 104.6 pts — higher than 99% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical USDJPY 1H

Sample: 72,952 1H candles from 2015-01-01 to 2026-09-21
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 3,076 times

When USDJPY is in Bear Critical:

  • then USDJPY moved to higher Market State: 2,210 times71.8%
  • then USDJPY moved to lower Market State: 866 times28.2%

Current USDJPY market energy: -64.98%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 4.98%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 9.52%

"History always repeats itself, one way or another" — 2AITRADING

USDJPY · H1 · 2025-09-26 12:00 UTC
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Market Energy
39.6%
Bull Bias
-65.0%
Bear Critical
-40.7%
Bear Bias
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Measurement result after the 1H candle closes, USDJPY within the Bear Critical state.

Market trend on the 2AiTrading energy system Market Energy dropped -104.6% from the previous candle, from 39.6% to -65%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 1H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, USDJPY Market Energy ranged from -78 to +99.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did USDJPY price and energy show when this 1H candle closed?

When the 1H candle at 19:00 on 26-09-2025 closed, USDJPY was at 149.625, down 0.11% from the previous candle (149.788). Market Energy was -65%, down 104.6 points from 39.6%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did USDJPY price move on this 1H candle, and how large is that historically?

USDJPY closed at 149.625, down 0.11% from the previous 1H candle (149.788). This drop is larger than 81% of past drops on the 1H timeframe for USDJPY, across 42,013 candles since 2019.

How did USDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 104.6 percentage points from the previous candle — from 39.6% to -65%. This drop is larger than 99% of past drops on the 1H timeframe for USDJPY.

Do USDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. This candle recorded price moving down in the same direction as energy. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was USDJPY in on the previous 1H candle?

The previous 1H candle had USDJPY at 39.6%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, USDJPY moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Bear Critical.

Where does USDJPY energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -65%, USDJPY is 4.98 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 9.52 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Critical with energy 65.7%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Extreme with energy 88.9%. Against this backdrop, USDJPY (Bear Critical, -65%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -54.6%. USDJPY (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for USDJPY.

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Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for USDJPY on the USDJPY overview →

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