Analysis

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Price and energy
POLUSD from 0.0905 to 0.0908, up 0.33%
Market Energy Bear Critical -67.3% to Bear Critical -70.8%, down 3.4 pts
Energy diverges from price
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price0.21%0.85%3.31%0.33%
Energy10.52.631.83.4
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
0.21% 0.85% 3.31% 0.33% 10.5 2.6 31.8 3.4
priceenergy up · down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price up 0.33% — higher than 19% of past rises
0%255075100%
Energy down 3.4 pts — higher than 22% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical POLUSD 4H

Sample: 4,370 4H candles from 2024-09-13 to 2026-09-11
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 117 times

When POLUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then POLUSD moved to higher Market State: 92 times78.6%
  • then POLUSD moved to lower Market State: 25 times21.4%

Current POLUSD market energy: -70.76%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 10.76%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 3.74%

"Why does archaeology matter?" — 2AITRADING

POLUSD · H4 · 2026-05-15 16:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
-67.3%
Bear Critical
-70.8%
Bear Critical
-65.0%
Bear Critical
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, Market POLUSD in Bear in Critical state.

Market energy measurement Energy delta -3.4%: Market Energy at -70.8%, previously -67.3%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, POLUSD Market Energy ranged from -86.2 to +66.2.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did POLUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 23:00 on 15-05-2026 closed, POLUSD was at 0.0908, up 0.33% from the previous candle (0.0905). Market Energy was -70.8%, down 3.4 points from -67.3%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did POLUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

POLUSD closed at 0.0908, up 0.33% from the previous 4H candle (0.0905). This rise is larger than 19% of past rises on the 4H timeframe for POLUSD, across 3,655 candles since 2019.

How did POLUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 3.4 percentage points from the previous candle — from -67.3% to -70.8%. This drop is larger than 22% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for POLUSD.

Do POLUSD price and energy agree?

No. Price moved up while energy moved down on this candle. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was POLUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had POLUSD at -67.3%, Bear Critical — this candle kept the same state, no zone change.

Where does POLUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -70.8%, POLUSD is 10.76 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 3.74 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -29.2%; GER40 (European equities) in Bear Critical with energy -69%. Against this backdrop, POLUSD (Bear Critical, -70.8%) lower than SPX500; sits in the same state zone as GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy 17.7%. POLUSD energy is currently below DXY by 88.5 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for POLUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for POLUSD on the POLUSD overview →

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