Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
BTCUSD from 42,261.02 to 41,784.73, down 1.13%
Market Energy Bull Bias 44.1% to Bear Bias -54.5%, down 98.6 pts
Down candle #2 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.39%▲ 0.20%▼ 0.51%▼ 1.13%
Energy▼ 14.5▼ 8.5▼ 22.7▼ 98.6
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.39%▲ 0.20%▼ 0.51%▼ 1.13%▼ 14.5▼ 8.5▼ 22.7▼ 98.6
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 1.13% — higher than 76% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 98.6 pts — higher than 98% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Bias BTCUSD 4H

Sample: 21,512 4H candles from 2017-01-01 to 2026-10-07
Number of Bear Bias occurrences: 1,498 times

▸When BTCUSD is in Bear Bias:

  • then BTCUSD moved to higher Market State: 953 times — 63.6%
  • then BTCUSD moved to lower Market State: 545 times — 36.4%

▸Current BTCUSD market energy: -54.48%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Bias (at -20.88%): 33.6%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Bias (at -60%): 5.52%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

BTCUSD · H4 · 2024-01-28 16:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live BTCUSD chart →
Market Energy
44.1%
Bull Bias
-54.5%
Bear Bias
-40.7%
Bear Bias
Zone
-60 – -20.88
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, BTCUSD within the Bear Bias energy state.

Market energy measurement Compared to the previous candle (44.1%), Market Energy dropped -98.6% to -54.5%.

Time in Bear Bias energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, BTCUSD Market Energy ranged from -67.8 to +99.1.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did BTCUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 23:00 on 28-01-2024 closed, BTCUSD was at 41,784.73, down 1.13% from the previous candle (42,261.02). Market Energy was -54.5%, down 98.6 points from 44.1%, in the Bear Bias state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Bias zone spans -60% to -20.88%.

How much did BTCUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

BTCUSD closed at 41,784.73, down 1.13% from the previous 4H candle (42,261.02). This drop is larger than 76% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for BTCUSD, across 11,123 candles since 2019.

How did BTCUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 98.6 percentage points from the previous candle — from 44.1% to -54.5%. This drop is larger than 98% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for BTCUSD.

Do BTCUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was BTCUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had BTCUSD at 44.1%, Bull Bias — when this candle closed, BTCUSD moved down to a lower zone: Bull Bias → Bear Bias.

Where does BTCUSD energy sit within the Bear Bias zone?

At -54.5%, BTCUSD is 33.6 points from the upper boundary of Bear Bias (-20.88%) and 5.52 points from the lower boundary (-60%) — so energy sits closer to the lower boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Bias mean?

Bear Bias is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Bias definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Neutral with energy 6%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 27.2%. Against this backdrop, BTCUSD (Bear Bias, -54.5%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Neutral with Market Energy 11.6%. BTCUSD energy is currently below DXY by 66.1 points.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for BTCUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for BTCUSD on the BTCUSD overview →

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