1. What is Win Rate

Win rate is the percentage of winning trades out of total trades. Win 45 of 100 → a 45% win rate.

2. Why it matters

  • Win rate is one of the two pieces (with RR) that decide whether a strategy profits.
  • But on its own it's not enough: a high win rate can still lose if each loss is far bigger than each win.

3. Reading it correctly

  • Win rate must always sit next to RR (see Risk Management). Break-even table: RR 1:1 needs win > 50%; RR 1:2 needs > 33%; RR 1:3 needs > 25%.
  • High win rate ≠ good; low win rate ≠ bad. What matters is expectancy (see Expectancy).

4. How to apply

  • Compute win rate from the journal, always beside average RR.
  • Use it to pick a style that fits your temperament: those uncomfortable with frequent losses suit high-win-rate (low-RR) strategies; the patient suit low-win-rate / high-RR.

5. Worked example

  • Strategy A: win rate 70%, RR 1:0.5 → 10 trades: +7×0.5 −3×1 = +0.5 (thin profit).
  • Strategy B: win rate 40%, RR 1:2 → 10 trades: +4×2 −6×1 = +2 (more profit).

→ B has a lower win rate but profits more. Don't choose by win rate alone.

6. Common mistakes

  • Worshiping a high win rate — ignoring RR.
  • Too small a sample: the win rate of 10 trades is unreliable.
  • Switching strategy just because win rate dipped over a short run.

7. FAQ

  • What win rate is good? No universal number — it depends on RR. There's only "high enough versus RR to be positive-expectancy".
  • Why does a high win rate still blow up? Because it loses rarely but each loss is huge (badly negative RR).

8. Tools

  • A journal-based stats sheet (win rate beside RR).

9. Checklist

  • ☐ Do I compute win rate alongside RR?
  • ☐ Is the sample large enough to trust?
  • ☐ Am I judging the strategy by win rate alone?