Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
SOLUSD from 119.98 to 118, down 1.65%
Market Energy Neutral 2.8% to Bear Critical -62.6%, down 65.3 pts
Down candle #2 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.40%▲ 0.08%▼ 1.51%▼ 1.65%
Energy▼ 2.0▼ 10.5▼ 60.5▼ 65.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.40%▲ 0.08%▼ 1.51%▼ 1.65%▼ 2.0▼ 10.5▼ 60.5▼ 65.3
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 1.65% — higher than 66% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 65.3 pts — higher than 96% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Critical SOLUSD 4H

Sample: 13,457 4H candles from 2020-08-11 to 2026-10-02
Number of Bear Critical occurrences: 695 times

▸When SOLUSD is in Bear Critical:

  • then SOLUSD moved to higher Market State: 504 times — 72.5%
  • then SOLUSD moved to lower Market State: 191 times — 27.5%

▸Current SOLUSD market energy: -62.57%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Critical (at -60%): 2.57%
  • Distance to lower bound of Bear Critical (at -74.5%): 11.93%

"Past — present — future. The past and present are known. The future is yours" — 2AITRADING

SOLUSD · H4 · 2026-10-02 16:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
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Market Energy
2.8%
Neutral
-62.6%
Bear Critical
Expected at
07:10
Zone
-74.5 – -60
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

With the 4H candle just closed, SOLUSD noted at the near-peak Bear energy state.

On the measurement side, Market Energy dropped -65.3% from the previous candle, from 2.8% to -62.6%.

Time in Bear Critical energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, SOLUSD Market Energy ranged from -88.8 to +75.9.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did SOLUSD price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 23:00 on 02-10-2026 closed, SOLUSD was at 118, down 1.65% from the previous candle (119.98). Market Energy was -62.6%, down 65.3 points from 2.8%, in the Bear Critical state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Critical zone spans -74.5% to -60%.

How much did SOLUSD price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

SOLUSD closed at 118, down 1.65% from the previous 4H candle (119.98). This drop is larger than 66% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for SOLUSD, across 13,460 candles since 2019.

How did SOLUSD Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 65.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from 2.8% to -62.6%. This drop is larger than 96% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for SOLUSD.

Do SOLUSD price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes the candle that just closed; it does not say where price goes next.

What state was SOLUSD in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had SOLUSD at 2.8%, Neutral — when this candle closed, SOLUSD moved down to a lower zone: Neutral → Bear Critical.

Where does SOLUSD energy sit within the Bear Critical zone?

At -62.6%, SOLUSD is 2.57 points from the upper boundary of Bear Critical (-60%) and 11.93 points from the lower boundary (-74.5%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Critical mean?

Bear Critical is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Critical definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bull Bias with energy 40.1%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 54.1%. Against this backdrop, SOLUSD (Bear Critical, -62.6%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bear Bias with Market Energy -40.9%. SOLUSD (Bear Critical) and DXY currently sit on the same Bear side.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for SOLUSD.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for SOLUSD on the SOLUSD overview →

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