Analysis

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Candle close
Price and energy
NZDJPY from 88.8805 to 88.623, down 0.29%
Market Energy Bear Critical -65.2% to Bear Extreme -85.5%, down 20.3 pts
Down candle #3 in a row—Price and energy are in agreement
Price and energy change · last 4 candles
Price▲ 0.04%▼ 0.18%▼ 0.05%▼ 0.29%
Energy▼ 8.9▼ 26.5▼ 15.0▼ 20.3
Volatility trend chart · last 4 sessions
▲ 0.04%▼ 0.18%▼ 0.05%▼ 0.29%▼ 8.9▼ 26.5▼ 15.0▼ 20.3
priceenergy▲ up · ▼ down
Volatility · vs history since 2019
Price down 0.29% — higher than 85% of past drops
0%255075100%
Energy down 20.3 pts — higher than 70% of past drops
RESEARCH

Trend of Bear Extreme NZDJPY 4H

Sample: 292 4H candles from 2026-07-22 to 2026-09-29
Number of Bear Extreme occurrences: 13 times

▸When NZDJPY is in Bear Extreme:

  • then NZDJPY moved to higher Market State: 13 times — 100%
  • then NZDJPY moved to lower Market State: 0 times — 0%

▸Current NZDJPY market energy: -85.52%

  • Distance to upper bound of Bear Extreme (at -74.5%): 11.02%
  • Distance to bottom -100%: 14.48%

"Does history really repeat itself?" — 2AITRADING

NZDJPY · H4 · 2026-09-29 13:00 UTC
Preview the last 30 candles — price and energy
View live NZDJPY chart →
Market Energy
-65.2%
Bear Critical
-85.5%
Bear Extreme
Expected at
04:10
Zone
-100 – -74.5
Bias
Sellers in control
Explanation

Right as the 4H candle closes, NZDJPY within the Bear Extreme energy zone.

End-of-session energy readings on 4H, Market Energy at -85.5%, down -20.3% from -65.2% in the previous candle.

Time in Bear Extreme energy zone: 1 4H Candle

2AiTrading Market Energy Model

Traders using any methodology can reference Market Energy on 2AiTrading to consider adjustments to their strategy — including stoploss, takeprofit, or position sizing — depending on the situation.

Market context
Historical perspective

Over the past 5 days, NZDJPY Market Energy ranged from -95.2 to +51.6.

Knowledge

Concepts referenced in this analysis. Tap to explore each in the Knowledge Hub.

Frequently asked questions

What did NZDJPY price and energy show when this 4H candle closed?

When the 4H candle at 20:00 on 29-09-2026 closed, NZDJPY was at 88.623, down 0.29% from the previous candle (88.8805). Market Energy was -85.5%, down 20.3 points from -65.2%, in the Bear Extreme state — controlled by sellers. The Bear Extreme zone spans -100% to -74.5%.

How much did NZDJPY price move on this 4H candle, and how large is that historically?

NZDJPY closed at 88.623, down 0.29% from the previous 4H candle (88.8805). This drop is larger than 85% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for NZDJPY, across 292 candles since 2019.

How did NZDJPY Market Energy change from the previous candle?

Market Energy fell 20.3 percentage points from the previous candle — from -65.2% to -85.5%. This drop is larger than 70% of past drops on the 4H timeframe for NZDJPY.

Do NZDJPY price and energy agree?

Yes. On this candle price fell and energy fell — both moved the same way. This describes a closed candle, not a forecast of where price goes next.

What state was NZDJPY in on the previous 4H candle?

The previous 4H candle had NZDJPY at -65.2%, Bear Critical — when this candle closed, NZDJPY moved down to a lower zone: Bear Critical → Bear Extreme.

Where does NZDJPY energy sit within the Bear Extreme zone?

At -85.5%, NZDJPY is 11.02 points from the upper boundary of Bear Extreme (-74.5%) and 14.48 points from the lower boundary (-100%) — so energy sits closer to the upper boundary at candle close.

What does Bear Extreme mean?

Bear Extreme is one of 7 Market States in 2AiTrading's Market Energy model, applied consistently across every asset class, market and timeframe.

See the full Bear Extreme definition →

How are the broader market indices trending?

Based on each index's latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close: SPX500 (US equities) in Bear Bias with energy -48.7%; GER40 (European equities) in Bull Bias with energy 26.7%. Against this backdrop, NZDJPY (Bear Extreme, -85.5%) lower than SPX500, GER40.

How is the US Dollar Index (DXY) trending?

Based on the latest completed H1 candle as of this candle close, the US Dollar Index (DXY) was in Bull Critical with Market Energy 64.6%. NZDJPY (Bear Extreme) and DXY currently sit on opposite sides.

Real-time Energy Chart

See the real-time energy chart for NZDJPY.

Open Energy Chart
Related analysis
Methodology

Data computed by 2AiTrading's proprietary Market Energy model. Snapshot captured at candle close. See methodology →

See the full 2AiTrading Model data for NZDJPY on the NZDJPY overview →

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